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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Max Holloway won · S-DEC R3

Elo1352

Elo1517

Leonard GarciavsMax HollowayUFC Prediction Result

UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasquez II · Saturday, December 29, 2012Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Max Holloway won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Max Holloway wins(70.2%)

Actual result: Max Holloway wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Max Holloway at -430 American odds

+$23 profit

$123 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Leonard Garcia enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Max Holloway has 39pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Leonard Garcia

Red Corner

Max Holloway

Blue Corner

+380

(21%)

Vegas Odds

-430

(81%)

1352

Elo

1517

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'11"

172.72 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Leonard GarciaL4 streak

oldest →

vs Nam Phan · Dec 10

SUBvs Chan Sung Jung · Mar 11

vs Nam Phan · Oct 11

vs Matt Grice · Jun 12

vs Cody McKenzie · Apr 13

latest

Max Holloway

oldest →

KOvs Justin Gaethje · Apr 24

KOvs Ilia Topuria · Oct 24

vs Dustin Poirier · Jul 25

vs Charles Oliveira · Mar 26

KOvs Conor McGregor · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Leonard GarciaMetricMax Holloway

2.77

Strikes / min

6.91

4.79

Strikes absorbed / min

4.61

52%

Strike defense

58%

0.30

TDs / 15 min

0.23

42%

Takedown defense

81%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.02Δ 4.32 — meaningful gap+2.30

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Leonard GarciaMax Holloway

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Leonard Garcia(6 fights)Max Holloway(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -165.4|Blue +165.4

Recent Form

Red -1.3|Blue +1.3

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +64.0|Blue -64.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Leonard GarciaTargetMax Holloway

By target zone

20% acc · 72%

Head

35% acc · 57%

42% acc · 11%

Body

62% acc · 32%

100% acc · 17%

Leg

93% acc · 12%

By position

24% acc · 92%

Distance

114

44% acc · 95%

58% acc · 8%

Clinch

86% acc · 5%

0% acc

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Leonard Garcia rounds

even

Max Holloway rounds

Round 1Max Holloway edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

32Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Max Holloway edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns1

Control0:40

37Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Max Holloway edged it

Sig. strikes39

Takedowns1

Control0:57

51Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:08Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

89 / 359

Sig Strikes

120 / 269

24.3%

Sig Str %

44%

92 / 367

Total Strikes

122 / 273

2 / 4

TDs

0 / 0

50%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:37

Ctrl Time

0:08

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Max Holloway	32 / 78	32 / 78	0 / 0
1	Leonard Garcia	25 / 104	25 / 104	0 / 0
2	Max Holloway	37 / 90	38 / 91	0 / 0
2	Leonard Garcia	25 / 104	26 / 106	1 / 2
3	Max Holloway	51 / 101	52 / 104	0 / 0
3	Leonard Garcia	39 / 151	41 / 157	1 / 2

Leonard Garcia

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights6

Max Holloway

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights33