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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Matt Grice won · U-DEC R3

Elo1352

Elo1490

Leonard GarciavsMatt GriceUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FX: Johnson vs McCall · Friday, June 8, 2012Sunrise, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Matt Grice won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Leonard Garcia wins(66.7%)

Actual result: Matt Grice wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Leonard Garcia at -125 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Leonard Garcia enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Matt Grice has 40pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Leonard Garcia

Red Corner

Matt Grice

Blue Corner

-125

(56%)

Vegas Odds

+115

(47%)

1352

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'8"

172.72 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Leonard GarciaL4 streak

oldest →

vs Nam Phan · Dec 10

SUBvs Chan Sung Jung · Mar 11

vs Nam Phan · Oct 11

vs Max Holloway · Dec 12

vs Cody McKenzie · Apr 13

latest

Matt GriceL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Ricardo Lamas · Jun 11

vs Dennis Bermudez · Feb 13

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Leonard GarciaMetricMatt Grice

2.77

Strikes / min

4.09

4.79

Strikes absorbed / min

2.69

52%

Strike defense

56%

0.30

TDs / 15 min

2.19

42%

Takedown defense

82%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.02Δ 3.42 — meaningful gap+1.40

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Leonard GarciaMatt Grice

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Leonard Garcia(6 fights)Matt Grice(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -138.1|Blue +138.1

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -104.0|Blue +104.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Leonard GarciaTargetMatt Grice

By target zone

2% acc · 50%

Head

56% acc · 97%

25% acc · 50%

Body

33% acc · 2%

0% acc

Leg

25% acc · 2%

By position

3% acc · 100%

Distance

40% acc · 13%

0% acc

Clinch

25% acc · 2%

Ground

58% acc · 85%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Leonard Garcia rounds

even

Matt Grice rounds

Round 1Matt Grice edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns0

Control0:00

16Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:36Control

Round 2Matt Grice edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:00

30Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:08Control

Round 3Matt Grice edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:00

15Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:53Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

2 / 69

Sig Strikes

61 / 113

4.7%

Sig Str %

52.7%

30 / 101

Total Strikes

136 / 194

0 / 0

TDs

4 / 7

—

TD %

66.7%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

9:37

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Matt Grice	16 / 31	42 / 59	1 / 1	1
1	Leonard Garcia	0 / 16	11 / 28	0 / 0	0
2	Matt Grice	30 / 52	62 / 86	1 / 2	0
2	Leonard Garcia	1 / 8	13 / 23	0 / 0	0
3	Matt Grice	15 / 30	32 / 49	2 / 4	0
3	Leonard Garcia	1 / 45	6 / 50	0 / 0	0

Leonard Garcia

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights6

Matt Grice

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights3