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Featherweight
3 Rounds
Cody McKenzie won · U-DEC R3
Elo1352
Leonard Garcia
Elo1490

Leonard GarciavsCody McKenzieUFC Prediction Result

UFC 159: Jones vs Sonnen · Saturday, April 27, 2013Newark, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Cody McKenzie won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Cody McKenzie wins(54.7%)

Actual result: Cody McKenzie wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Cody McKenzie at +188 American odds

+$188 profit

$288 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Leonard Garcia enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
  • Cody McKenzie has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Leonard Garcia has 28pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Cody McKenzie (52.9%).
  • Cody McKenzie has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Leonard Garcia
Red Corner
VS
Cody McKenzie
Blue Corner
-205
(67%)
Vegas Odds
+188
(35%)
1352
Elo
1490
47
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
5'10"
Height
6'0"
172.72 cm
Reach
182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Leonard GarciaL4 streak
oldest →
W
vs Nam Phan · Dec 10
L
SUBvs Chan Sung Jung · Mar 11
L
vs Nam Phan · Oct 11
L
vs Matt Grice · Jun 12
L
vs Max Holloway · Dec 12
latest
Cody McKenzieL2 streak
oldest →
L
SUBvs Yves Edwards · Jan 11
L
SUBvs Vagner Rocha · Sep 11
W
SUBvs Marcus LeVesseur · May 12
L
KOvs Chad Mendes · Jul 12
L
vs Sam Stout · Dec 13
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Leonard GarciaMetricCody McKenzie
2.77
Strikes / min
1.74
4.79
Strikes absorbed / min
2.50
52%
Strike defense
67%
0.30
TDs / 15 min
2.50
42%
Takedown defense
14%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
2.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-2.02Δ 1.26 — meaningful gap-0.76

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1452 vs 1485Strikes39.9 vs 6.6Takedowns0.5 vs 0.6Sub Atts0.38 vs 1.00Form-0.9 vs -0.2
Leonard GarciaCody McKenzie

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
Leonard Garcia(6 fights)Cody McKenzie(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -138.2|Blue +138.2
Recent Form
Red -0.7|Blue +0.7
Striker Score
Red +1.5|Blue -1.5
Grappler Score
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Layoff
Red -175.0|Blue +175.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Leonard GarciaTargetCody McKenzie

By target zone

10
14% acc · 67%
Head
27
56% acc · 90%
4
100% acc · 27%
Body
2
40% acc · 7%
1
33% acc · 7%
Leg
1
100% acc · 3%

By position

11
15% acc · 73%
Distance
16
42% acc · 53%
2
100% acc · 13%
Clinch
4
67% acc · 13%
2
100% acc · 13%
Ground
10
100% acc · 33%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Leonard Garcia rounds
0
even
3
Cody McKenzie rounds
Round 1Cody McKenzie edged it
Sig. strikes0
Takedowns0
Control0:20
6Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
4:28Control
Round 2Cody McKenzie edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns0
Control0:00
5Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
3:54Control
Round 3Cody McKenzie edged it
Sig. strikes12
Takedowns0
Control0:00
19Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:48Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
15 / 77
Sig Strikes
30 / 54
19.5%
Sig Str %
69.7%
30 / 92
Total Strikes
84 / 111
0 / 0
TDs
5 / 13
—
TD %
51%
0
Sub Att
4
0
Rev
0
0:20
Ctrl Time
9:10

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Cody McKenzie6 / 636 / 392 / 24
1Leonard Garcia0 / 07 / 70 / 00
2Cody McKenzie5 / 825 / 282 / 60
2Leonard Garcia3 / 1511 / 230 / 00
3Cody McKenzie19 / 4023 / 441 / 50
3Leonard Garcia12 / 6212 / 620 / 00

Leonard Garcia

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights6

Cody McKenzie

StanceSwitch
Height72.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights7