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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Leon Edwards won · U-DEC R3

Elo1480

Elo1504

Leon EdwardsvsVicente LuqueUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Manuwa vs. Anderson · Saturday, March 18, 2017London, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Leon Edwards won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupLeon Edwards: Well-roundedvsVicente Luque: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Leon Edwards wins(60.4%)

Actual result: Leon Edwards wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Leon Edwards at +100 American odds

+$100 profit

$200 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Leon Edwards enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Leon Edwards (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Leon Edwards

Red Corner

Vicente Luque

Blue Corner

+100

(50%)

Vegas Odds

-120

(55%)

1480

Elo

1504

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

5'11"

187.96 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Leon EdwardsL3 streak

oldest →

vs Kamaru Usman · Mar 23

vs Colby Covington · Dec 23

vs Belal Muhammad · Jul 24

SUBvs Sean Brady · Mar 25

KOvs Carlos Prates · Nov 25

latest

Vicente Luque

oldest →

KOvs Joaquin Buckley · Mar 24

SUBvs Themba Gorimbo · Dec 24

SUBvs Kevin Holland · Jun 25

vs Joel Alvarez · Oct 25

SUBvs Kelvin Gastelum · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Leon EdwardsMetricVicente Luque

2.60

Strikes / min

4.80

2.44

Strikes absorbed / min

5.24

52%

Strike defense

51%

1.25

TDs / 15 min

0.89

63%

Takedown defense

59%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.16evenly matched on net striking-0.44

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Leon EdwardsVicente Luque

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Leon Edwards(10 fights)Vicente Luque(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -24.6|Blue +24.6

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red +35.0|Blue -35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Leon EdwardsTargetVicente Luque

By target zone

47% acc · 72%

Head

43% acc · 54%

71% acc · 23%

Body

78% acc · 29%

75% acc · 6%

Leg

80% acc · 17%

By position

51% acc · 83%

Distance

51% acc · 88%

67% acc · 15%

Clinch

100% acc · 8%

25% acc · 2%

Ground

100% acc · 4%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Leon Edwards rounds

even

Vicente Luque rounds

Round 1Vicente Luque edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:21

9Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:00Control

Round 2Leon Edwards edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns2

Control2:59

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:13Control

Round 3Leon Edwards edged it

Sig. strikes35

Takedowns1

Control1:52

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:08Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

53 / 102

Sig Strikes

24 / 44

50%

Sig Str %

40.7%

77 / 135

Total Strikes

44 / 64

3 / 12

TDs

2 / 7

23.3%

TD %

22%

Sub Att

Rev

5:12

Ctrl Time

5:21

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Vicente Luque	9 / 13	27 / 31	2 / 3
1	Leon Edwards	9 / 19	11 / 21	0 / 3
2	Vicente Luque	0 / 3	1 / 4	0 / 1
2	Leon Edwards	9 / 18	23 / 37	2 / 4
3	Vicente Luque	15 / 28	16 / 29	0 / 3
3	Leon Edwards	35 / 65	43 / 77	1 / 5

Leon Edwards

StanceSouthpaw

Height74.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights19

Vicente Luque

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights23