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Welterweight

5 Rounds

Sean Brady won · SUB R4

Elo1480

Elo1521

Leon EdwardsvsSean BradyUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · Saturday, March 22, 2025London, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Sean Brady won

SUB · Round 4 · 1:39

Style matchupLeon Edwards: Well-roundedvsSean Brady: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Sean Brady wins(70.1%)

Actual result: Sean Brady wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Sean Brady at -132 American odds

+$76 profit

$176 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Sean Brady has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Leon Edwards (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Leon Edwards

Red Corner

Sean Brady

Blue Corner

+120

(45%)

Vegas Odds

-132

(57%)

1480

Elo

1521

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

5'10"

187.96 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Leon EdwardsL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Kamaru Usman · Aug 22

vs Kamaru Usman · Mar 23

vs Colby Covington · Dec 23

vs Belal Muhammad · Jul 24

KOvs Carlos Prates · Nov 25

latest

Sean Brady

oldest →

KOvs Belal Muhammad · Oct 22

SUBvs Kelvin Gastelum · Dec 23

vs Gilbert Burns · Sep 24

KOvs Michael Morales · Nov 25

DECvs Joaquin Buckley · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Leon EdwardsMetricSean Brady

2.60

Strikes / min

4.08

2.44

Strikes absorbed / min

2.77

52%

Strike defense

59%

1.25

TDs / 15 min

3.58

63%

Takedown defense

86%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.16Δ 1.15 — meaningful gap+1.31

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Leon EdwardsSean Brady

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Leon Edwards(10 fights)Sean Brady(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -41.7|Blue +41.7

Recent Form

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Striker Score

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Grappler Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Layoff

Red +42.0|Blue -42.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Leon EdwardsTargetSean Brady

By target zone

48% acc · 43%

Head

58% acc · 77%

92% acc · 48%

Body

89% acc · 14%

100% acc · 9%

Leg

63% acc · 9%

By position

48% acc · 48%

Distance

36% acc · 33%

100% acc · 52%

Clinch

100% acc · 12%

Ground

94% acc · 54%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Leon Edwards rounds

even

Sean Brady rounds

Round 1Sean Brady edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:15

19Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:54Control

Round 2Sean Brady edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns0

Control0:00

19Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

4:57Control

Round 3Sean Brady edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:00

14Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:09Control

Round 4Sean Brady edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns0

Control0:00

5Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:10Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

23 / 35

Sig Strikes

57 / 93

47.7%

Sig Str %

61.3%

23 / 35

Total Strikes

221 / 295

0 / 1

TDs

5 / 7

TD %

75%

Sub Att

Rev

0:15

Ctrl Time

11:10

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Sean Brady	19 / 39	47 / 69	1 / 1	0
1	Leon Edwards	20 / 29	20 / 29	0 / 0	0
2	Sean Brady	19 / 22	76 / 95	2 / 2	0
2	Leon Edwards	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0
3	Leon Edwards	3 / 4	3 / 4	0 / 1	0
3	Sean Brady	14 / 21	86 / 113	1 / 2	0
4	Sean Brady	5 / 11	12 / 18	1 / 2	1
4	Leon Edwards	0 / 2	0 / 2	0 / 0	0

Leon Edwards

StanceSouthpaw

Height74.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights19

Sean Brady

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights11