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Welterweight
3 Rounds
Leon Edwards won · KO/TKO R3
Elo1480
Leon Edwards
Elo1387

Leon EdwardsvsPeter SobottaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Volkov · Saturday, March 17, 2018London, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Leon Edwards won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 4:59

Model Prediction: Leon Edwards wins(71.4%)

Actual result: Leon Edwards wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Leon Edwards at -190 American odds

+$53 profit

$153 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Leon Edwards enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Leon Edwards
Red Corner
VS
Peter Sobotta
Blue Corner
-190
(66%)
Vegas Odds
+165
(38%)
1480
Elo
1387
34
Age
39
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
6'2"
Height
6'0"
187.96 cm
Reach
190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Leon EdwardsL3 streak
oldest →
W
vs Kamaru Usman · Mar 23
W
vs Colby Covington · Dec 23
L
vs Belal Muhammad · Jul 24
L
SUBvs Sean Brady · Mar 25
L
KOvs Carlos Prates · Nov 25
latest
Peter Sobotta
oldest →
W
SUBvs Steve Kennedy · Jun 15
L
KOvs Kyle Noke · Nov 15
W
vs Nicolas Dalby · Sep 16
W
KOvs Ben Saunders · May 17
L
vs Alex Oliveira · Jul 20
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Leon EdwardsMetricPeter Sobotta
2.60
Strikes / min
2.14
2.44
Strikes absorbed / min
2.90
52%
Strike defense
58%
1.25
TDs / 15 min
1.53
63%
Takedown defense
77%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.16evenly matched on net striking-0.76

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1576 vs 1525Strikes26.8 vs 25.8Takedowns1.4 vs 1.4Sub Atts0.63 vs 0.50Form0.9 vs 0.8
Leon EdwardsPeter Sobotta

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14601475149015051520← oldermost recent →
Leon Edwards(10 fights)Peter Sobotta(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +93.0|Blue -93.0
Recent Form
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Striker Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Grappler Score
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Layoff
Red -97.0|Blue +97.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Leon EdwardsTargetPeter Sobotta

By target zone

37
47% acc · 88%
Head
8
24% acc · 50%
5
83% acc · 12%
Body
3
75% acc · 19%
0
0% acc
Leg
5
100% acc · 31%

By position

16
32% acc · 38%
Distance
15
36% acc · 94%
1
100% acc · 2%
Clinch
1
100% acc · 6%
25
71% acc · 60%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

3
Leon Edwards rounds
0
even
0
Peter Sobotta rounds
Round 1Leon Edwards edged it
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns0
Control2:53
Knockdowns1
6Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Round 2Leon Edwards edged it
Sig. strikes4
Takedowns1
Control2:54
4Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:13Control
Round 3Leon Edwards edged it
Sig. strikes30
Takedowns0
Control2:33
6Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:51Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
42 / 86
Sig Strikes
16 / 43
41.7%
Sig Str %
36.7%
71 / 117
Total Strikes
57 / 90
1 / 2
TDs
1 / 4
50%
TD %
25%
0
Sub Att
0
1
Rev
0
8:20
Ctrl Time
1:04

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Peter Sobotta6 / 1429 / 420 / 00
1Leon Edwards8 / 1919 / 310 / 00
2Peter Sobotta4 / 1521 / 330 / 00
2Leon Edwards4 / 1912 / 271 / 10
3Peter Sobotta6 / 147 / 151 / 40
3Leon Edwards30 / 4840 / 590 / 10

Leon Edwards

StanceSouthpaw
Height74.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights19

Peter Sobotta

StanceSouthpaw
Height72.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights9