← All fights/Event page

Welterweight

3 Rounds

Leon Edwards won · U-DEC R3

Elo1480

Elo1490

Leon EdwardsvsPawel PawlakUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Leites · Saturday, July 18, 2015Glasgow, Scotland, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Leon Edwards won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Pawel Pawlak wins(64.2%)

Actual result: Leon Edwards wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Pawel Pawlak at +325 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Leon Edwards enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Leon Edwards (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Leon Edwards

Red Corner

Pawel Pawlak

Blue Corner

-400

(80%)

Vegas Odds

+325

(24%)

1480

Elo

1490

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'0"

187.96 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Leon EdwardsL3 streak

oldest →

vs Kamaru Usman · Mar 23

vs Colby Covington · Dec 23

vs Belal Muhammad · Jul 24

SUBvs Sean Brady · Mar 25

KOvs Carlos Prates · Nov 25

latest

Pawel Pawlak

oldest →

vs Peter Sobotta · May 14

vs Sheldon Westcott · Apr 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Leon EdwardsMetricPawel Pawlak

2.60

Strikes / min

1.67

2.44

Strikes absorbed / min

2.22

52%

Strike defense

53%

1.25

TDs / 15 min

1.00

63%

Takedown defense

70%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.16evenly matched on net striking-0.55

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Leon EdwardsPawel Pawlak

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Leon Edwards(10 fights)Pawel Pawlak(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -10.6|Blue +10.6

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Leon EdwardsTargetPawel Pawlak

By target zone

47% acc · 78%

Head

17% acc · 42%

67% acc · 17%

Body

67% acc · 50%

100% acc · 6%

Leg

100% acc · 8%

By position

43% acc · 64%

Distance

29% acc · 83%

60% acc · 8%

Clinch

50% acc · 17%

83% acc · 28%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Leon Edwards rounds

even

Pawel Pawlak rounds

Round 1Leon Edwards edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control2:15

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:10Control

Round 2Leon Edwards edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control2:02

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Leon Edwards edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control2:47

Knockdowns1

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:11Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

36 / 71

Sig Strikes

24 / 78

50.7%

Sig Str %

30.7%

73 / 110

Total Strikes

65 / 120

0 / 4

TDs

0 / 4

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

7:04

Ctrl Time

0:21

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Pawel Pawlak	9 / 24	30 / 46	0 / 3
1	Leon Edwards	10 / 23	17 / 31	0 / 2
2	Pawel Pawlak	9 / 29	24 / 44	0 / 1
2	Leon Edwards	10 / 25	21 / 36	0 / 1
3	Pawel Pawlak	6 / 25	11 / 30	0 / 0
3	Leon Edwards	16 / 23	35 / 43	0 / 1

Leon Edwards

StanceSouthpaw

Height74.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights19

Pawel Pawlak

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights3