← All fights/Event page

Welterweight

3 Rounds

Leon Edwards won · U-DEC R5

Elo1480

Elo1496

Leon EdwardsvsNate DiazUFC Prediction Result

UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2 · Saturday, June 12, 2021Glendale, Arizona, USA

Official fight result

Leon Edwards won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupLeon Edwards: Well-roundedvsNate Diaz: Submission grappler

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Leon Edwards wins(70.5%)

Actual result: Leon Edwards wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Leon Edwards at -500 American odds

+$20 profit

$120 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Leon Edwards enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Leon Edwards has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Leon Edwards

Red Corner

Nate Diaz

Blue Corner

-500

(83%)

Vegas Odds

+355

(22%)

1480

Elo

1496

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

6'2"

Height

6'0"

187.96 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Leon EdwardsL3 streak

oldest →

vs Kamaru Usman · Mar 23

vs Colby Covington · Dec 23

vs Belal Muhammad · Jul 24

SUBvs Sean Brady · Mar 25

KOvs Carlos Prates · Nov 25

latest

Nate Diaz

oldest →

SUBvs Conor McGregor · Mar 16

vs Conor McGregor · Aug 16

vs Anthony Pettis · Aug 19

KOvs Jorge Masvidal · Nov 19

SUBvs Tony Ferguson · Sep 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Leon EdwardsMetricNate Diaz

2.60

Strikes / min

4.57

2.44

Strikes absorbed / min

3.77

52%

Strike defense

52%

1.25

TDs / 15 min

1.05

63%

Takedown defense

41%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

1.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.16evenly matched on net striking+0.80

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Leon EdwardsNate Diaz

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Leon Edwards(10 fights)Nate Diaz(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -16.5|Blue +16.5

Recent Form

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Striker Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +105.0|Blue -105.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Leon EdwardsTargetNate Diaz

By target zone

49% acc · 62%

Head

40% acc · 68%

50% acc · 8%

Body

76% acc · 21%

100% acc · 30%

Leg

67% acc · 11%

By position

58% acc · 88%

Distance

43% acc · 87%

67% acc · 5%

Clinch

100% acc · 13%

63% acc · 6%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Leon Edwards rounds

even

Nate Diaz rounds

Round 1Leon Edwards edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns1

Control1:32

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Round 2Leon Edwards edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns1

Control1:09

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:16Control

Round 3Leon Edwards edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns2

Control2:18

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:26Control

Round 4Even round

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:00

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:14Control

Round 5Nate Diaz edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:00

31Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:54Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

77 / 132

Sig Strikes

76 / 162

62%

Sig Str %

42.4%

83 / 139

Total Strikes

130 / 223

4 / 5

TDs

0 / 0

83.3%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

4:59

Ctrl Time

1:53

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Nate Diaz	10 / 23	19 / 35	0 / 0
1	Leon Edwards	13 / 19	14 / 20	1 / 2
2	Nate Diaz	13 / 30	29 / 49	0 / 0
2	Leon Edwards	17 / 30	18 / 32	1 / 1
3	Nate Diaz	3 / 12	20 / 29	0 / 0
3	Leon Edwards	13 / 15	17 / 19	2 / 2
4	Leon Edwards	18 / 36	18 / 36	0 / 0
4	Nate Diaz	19 / 45	20 / 46	0 / 0
5	Nate Diaz	31 / 52	42 / 64	0 / 0
5	Leon Edwards	16 / 32	16 / 32	0 / 0

Leon Edwards

StanceSouthpaw

Height74.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights19

Nate Diaz

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights18