Skip to content
FIGHTDETECTIVE
← All fights/Event page
Welterweight
5 Rounds
Title Bout
Leon Edwards won · M-DEC R5
Elo1480
Leon Edwards
Elo1489
Kamaru Usman editorial illustration

Leon EdwardsvsKamaru UsmanUFC Prediction Result

UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · Saturday, March 18, 2023London, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Leon Edwards won

M-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupLeon Edwards: Well-roundedvsKamaru Usman: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Kamaru Usman wins(60.5%)

Actual result: Leon Edwards wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Kamaru Usman at -245 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Leon Edwards enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Kamaru Usman has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Kamaru Usman (54.1%).

Tale of the Tape

Leon Edwards
Red Corner
VS
Kamaru Usman
Blue Corner
+205
(33%)
Vegas Odds
-245
(71%)
1480
Elo
1489
34
Age
39
Southpaw
Stance
Switch
6'2"
Height
6'0"
187.96 cm
Reach
193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Leon EdwardsL3 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Kamaru Usman · Aug 22
W
vs Colby Covington · Dec 23
L
vs Belal Muhammad · Jul 24
L
SUBvs Sean Brady · Mar 25
L
KOvs Carlos Prates · Nov 25
latest
Kamaru Usman
oldest →
W
vs Colby Covington · Nov 21
L
KOvs Leon Edwards · Aug 22
L
vs Khamzat Chimaev · Oct 23
W
vs Joaquin Buckley · Jun 25
L
DECvs Dricus Du Plessis · Jul 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Leon EdwardsMetricKamaru Usman
2.60
Strikes / min
4.16
2.44
Strikes absorbed / min
2.67
52%
Strike defense
55%
1.25
TDs / 15 min
2.79
63%
Takedown defense
89%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.16Δ 1.33 — meaningful gap+1.49

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1686 vs 1728Strikes2.7 vs 4.4Takedowns1.3 vs 2.8Sub Atts0.40 vs 0.10Form1.1 vs 0.1
Leon EdwardsKamaru Usman

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14601475149015051520← oldermost recent →
Leon Edwards(10 fights)Kamaru Usman(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -9.7|Blue +9.7
Recent Form
Red +1.0|Blue -1.0
Striker Score
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Grappler Score
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Layoff
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Leon EdwardsTargetKamaru Usman

By target zone

34
49% acc · 28%
Head
57
35% acc · 66%
36
92% acc · 30%
Body
24
71% acc · 28%
50
94% acc · 42%
Leg
6
75% acc · 7%

By position

111
74% acc · 93%
Distance
65
37% acc · 75%
9
82% acc · 8%
Clinch
21
78% acc · 24%
0
Ground
1
100% acc · 1%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

2
Leon Edwards rounds
2
even
1
Kamaru Usman rounds
Round 1Leon Edwards edged it
Sig. strikes20
Takedowns0
Control0:00
12Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:19Control
Round 2Kamaru Usman edged it
Sig. strikes23
Takedowns0
Control0:00
24Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:45Control
Round 3Even round
Sig. strikes24
Takedowns0
Control0:00
17Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:06Control
Round 4Leon Edwards edged it
Sig. strikes25
Takedowns0
Control0:00
14Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:51Control
Round 5Even round
Sig. strikes28
Takedowns0
Control0:00
20Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
2:02Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
120 / 161
Sig Strikes
87 / 205
75.2%
Sig Str %
42.2%
123 / 164
Total Strikes
113 / 232
0 / 1
TDs
4 / 15
0%
TD %
38.2%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
5:03

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Kamaru Usman12 / 4213 / 430 / 20
1Leon Edwards20 / 2620 / 260 / 00
2Kamaru Usman24 / 5032 / 581 / 10
2Leon Edwards23 / 2623 / 260 / 10
3Kamaru Usman17 / 3222 / 371 / 20
3Leon Edwards24 / 3225 / 330 / 00
4Leon Edwards25 / 4126 / 420 / 00
4Kamaru Usman14 / 3715 / 381 / 40
5Kamaru Usman20 / 4431 / 561 / 60
5Leon Edwards28 / 3629 / 370 / 00

Leon Edwards

StanceSouthpaw
Height74.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights19

Kamaru Usman

StanceSwitch
Height72.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights20