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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Leon Edwards won · S-DEC R3

Elo1480

Elo1497

Leon EdwardsvsGunnar NelsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Till vs. Masvidal · Saturday, March 16, 2019London, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Leon Edwards won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupLeon Edwards: Well-roundedvsGunnar Nelson: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Leon Edwards wins(58.1%)

Actual result: Leon Edwards wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Leon Edwards at -140 American odds

+$71 profit

$171 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Leon Edwards enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Gunnar Nelson (54.1%).

Tale of the Tape

Leon Edwards

Red Corner

Gunnar Nelson

Blue Corner

-140

(58%)

Vegas Odds

+120

(45%)

1480

Elo

1497

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Switch

6'2"

Height

5'11"

187.96 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Leon EdwardsL3 streak

oldest →

vs Kamaru Usman · Mar 23

vs Colby Covington · Dec 23

vs Belal Muhammad · Jul 24

SUBvs Sean Brady · Mar 25

KOvs Carlos Prates · Nov 25

latest

Gunnar Nelson

oldest →

SUBvs Alex Oliveira · Dec 18

vs Gilbert Burns · Sep 19

vs Takashi Sato · Mar 22

SUBvs Bryan Barberena · Mar 23

vs Kevin Holland · Mar 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Leon EdwardsMetricGunnar Nelson

2.60

Strikes / min

1.77

2.44

Strikes absorbed / min

3.06

52%

Strike defense

48%

1.25

TDs / 15 min

2.00

63%

Takedown defense

68%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.16Δ 1.45 — meaningful gap-1.29

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Leon EdwardsGunnar Nelson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Leon Edwards(10 fights)Gunnar Nelson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -16.8|Blue +16.8

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +168.0|Blue -168.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Leon EdwardsTargetGunnar Nelson

By target zone

57% acc · 55%

Head

30% acc · 33%

76% acc · 42%

Body

80% acc · 44%

50% acc · 3%

Leg

67% acc · 22%

By position

25% acc · 13%

Distance

33% acc · 44%

84% acc · 52%

Clinch

83% acc · 56%

79% acc · 35%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Leon Edwards rounds

even

Gunnar Nelson rounds

Round 1Leon Edwards edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns2

Control2:18

3Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:26Control

Round 2Leon Edwards edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:30

Knockdowns1

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:38Control

0Knockdowns

Round 3Gunnar Nelson edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:41

3Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:18Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

31 / 49

Sig Strikes

9 / 18

64.3%

Sig Str %

67.3%

47 / 69

Total Strikes

27 / 38

2 / 3

TDs

3 / 4

50%

TD %

83%

Sub Att

Rev

3:29

Ctrl Time

4:22

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Gunnar Nelson	3 / 3	6 / 7	2 / 3
1	Leon Edwards	5 / 9	18 / 26	2 / 2
2	Gunnar Nelson	3 / 11	3 / 11	0 / 0
2	Leon Edwards	23 / 36	25 / 38	0 / 0
3	Gunnar Nelson	3 / 4	18 / 20	1 / 1
3	Leon Edwards	3 / 4	4 / 5	0 / 1

Leon Edwards

StanceSouthpaw

Height74.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights19

Gunnar Nelson

StanceSwitch

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights16