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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Leon Edwards won · U-DEC R3

Elo1480

Elo1357

Leon EdwardsvsDominic WatersUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arlovski · Sunday, May 8, 2016Rotterdam, Zuid-Holland, Netherlands

Official fight result

Leon Edwards won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupLeon Edwards: Well-roundedvsDominic Waters: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Dominic Waters wins(57.3%)

Actual result: Leon Edwards wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Dominic Waters at +230 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Leon Edwards enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Leon Edwards has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Leon Edwards has 35pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Leon Edwards (53.5%).
Dominic Waters has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Leon Edwards

Red Corner

Dominic Waters

Blue Corner

-270

(73%)

Vegas Odds

+230

(30%)

1480

Elo

1357

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'1"

187.96 cm

Reach

200.66 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Leon EdwardsL3 streak

oldest →

vs Kamaru Usman · Mar 23

vs Colby Covington · Dec 23

vs Belal Muhammad · Jul 24

SUBvs Sean Brady · Mar 25

KOvs Carlos Prates · Nov 25

latest

Dominic WatersL2 streak

oldest →

vs George Sullivan · Jul 15

KOvs Dong Hyun Kim · Nov 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Leon EdwardsMetricDominic Waters

2.60

Strikes / min

0.48

2.44

Strikes absorbed / min

2.53

52%

Strike defense

39%

1.25

TDs / 15 min

4.07

63%

Takedown defense

28%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.16Δ 2.21 — meaningful gap-2.05

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Leon EdwardsDominic Waters

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Leon Edwards(10 fights)Dominic Waters(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +122.9|Blue -122.9

Recent Form

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Striker Score

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Grappler Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Layoff

Red -21.0|Blue +21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Leon EdwardsTargetDominic Waters

By target zone

61% acc · 71%

Head

8% acc · 33%

100% acc · 29%

Body

100% acc · 67%

Leg

0% acc

By position

47% acc · 33%

Distance

20% acc · 100%

100% acc · 4%

Clinch

0% acc

88% acc · 63%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Leon Edwards rounds

even

Dominic Waters rounds

Round 1Dominic Waters edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns1

Control0:11

0Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:02Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns1

Control1:10

0Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:17Control

Round 3Leon Edwards edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control1:49

3Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:57Control

Fight Stats

Totals

24 / 35

Sig Strikes

3 / 16

71.3%

Sig Str %

14%

55 / 69

Total Strikes

39 / 54

2 / 3

TDs

4 / 12

66.7%

TD %

36%

Sub Att

Rev

3:10

Ctrl Time

7:16

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Dominic Waters	0 / 3	0 / 3	1 / 2	0
1	Leon Edwards	5 / 6	15 / 17	1 / 1	1
2	Dominic Waters	0 / 6	22 / 28	2 / 6	0
2	Leon Edwards	6 / 9	21 / 24	1 / 1	0
3	Dominic Waters	3 / 7	17 / 23	1 / 4	0
3	Leon Edwards	13 / 20	19 / 28	0 / 1	0

Leon Edwards

StanceSouthpaw

Height74.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights19

Dominic Waters

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights3