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Welterweight
5 Rounds
Title Bout
Leon Edwards won · U-DEC R5
Elo1480
Leon Edwards
Elo1491
Colby Covington

Leon EdwardsvsColby CovingtonUFC Prediction Result

UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · Saturday, December 16, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Leon Edwards won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupLeon Edwards: Well-roundedvsColby Covington: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Leon Edwards wins(67.7%)

Actual result: Leon Edwards wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Leon Edwards enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Leon Edwards (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Leon Edwards
Red Corner
VS
Colby Covington
Blue Corner
—
Vegas Odds
—
1480
Elo
1491
34
Age
38
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'2"
Height
5'11"
187.96 cm
Reach
182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Leon EdwardsL3 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Kamaru Usman · Aug 22
W
vs Kamaru Usman · Mar 23
L
vs Belal Muhammad · Jul 24
L
SUBvs Sean Brady · Mar 25
L
KOvs Carlos Prates · Nov 25
latest
Colby Covington
oldest →
L
KOvs Kamaru Usman · Dec 19
W
KOvs Tyron Woodley · Sep 20
L
vs Kamaru Usman · Nov 21
W
vs Jorge Masvidal · Mar 22
L
KOvs Joaquin Buckley · Dec 24
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Leon EdwardsMetricColby Covington
2.60
Strikes / min
3.81
2.44
Strikes absorbed / min
3.09
52%
Strike defense
54%
1.25
TDs / 15 min
3.64
63%
Takedown defense
68%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.16evenly matched on net striking+0.72

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1707 vs 1662Strikes2.7 vs 3.9Takedowns1.3 vs 3.8Sub Atts0.40 vs 0.20Form1.1 vs 0.3
Leon EdwardsColby Covington

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14601475149015051520← oldermost recent →
Leon Edwards(10 fights)Colby Covington(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -11.4|Blue +11.4
Recent Form
Red +0.8|Blue -0.8
Striker Score
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Grappler Score
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Layoff
Red -378.0|Blue +378.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Leon EdwardsTargetColby Covington

By target zone

21
34% acc · 37%
Head
20
23% acc · 45%
14
67% acc · 25%
Body
7
58% acc · 16%
22
88% acc · 39%
Leg
17
61% acc · 39%

By position

56
52% acc · 98%
Distance
44
35% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
0% acc
1
100% acc · 2%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

3
Leon Edwards rounds
0
even
2
Colby Covington rounds
Round 1Leon Edwards edged it
Sig. strikes13
Takedowns0
Control0:00
10Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Leon Edwards edged it
Sig. strikes18
Takedowns0
Control0:00
13Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Leon Edwards edged it
Sig. strikes12
Takedowns1
Control0:18
7Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:34Control
Round 4Colby Covington edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns0
Control0:11
13Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:27Control
Round 5Colby Covington edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns1
Control0:58
1Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
3:03Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
57 / 108
Sig Strikes
44 / 126
53.8%
Sig Str %
33.4%
65 / 116
Total Strikes
109 / 194
2 / 3
TDs
2 / 10
75%
TD %
33.3%
2
Sub Att
0
1
Rev
0
1:27
Ctrl Time
5:04

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Colby Covington10 / 2810 / 280 / 10
1Leon Edwards13 / 3113 / 310 / 00
2Colby Covington13 / 3613 / 360 / 00
2Leon Edwards18 / 2718 / 270 / 00
3Colby Covington7 / 3213 / 381 / 30
3Leon Edwards12 / 2313 / 241 / 20
4Leon Edwards11 / 2211 / 220 / 01
4Colby Covington13 / 2619 / 320 / 50
5Colby Covington1 / 454 / 601 / 10
5Leon Edwards3 / 510 / 121 / 11

Leon Edwards

StanceSouthpaw
Height74.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights19

Colby Covington

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights17