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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Leon Edwards won · U-DEC R3

Elo1480

Elo1491

Leon EdwardsvsBryan BarberenaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Struve · Saturday, September 2, 2017Rotterdam, Zuid-Holland, Netherlands

Official fight result

Leon Edwards won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupLeon Edwards: Well-roundedvsBryan Barberena: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Bryan Barberena wins(50.5%)

Actual result: Leon Edwards wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Bryan Barberena at +210 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Leon Edwards enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Bryan Barberena enters on a 4-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Leon Edwards

Red Corner

Bryan Barberena

Blue Corner

-250

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+210

(32%)

1480

Elo

1491

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

6'2"

Height

6'0"

187.96 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Leon EdwardsL3 streak

oldest →

vs Kamaru Usman · Mar 23

vs Colby Covington · Dec 23

vs Belal Muhammad · Jul 24

SUBvs Sean Brady · Mar 25

KOvs Carlos Prates · Nov 25

latest

Bryan BarberenaL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Robbie Lawler · Jul 22

SUBvs Rafael Dos Anjos · Dec 22

SUBvs Gunnar Nelson · Mar 23

vs Makhmud Muradov · Jul 23

SUBvs Gerald Meerschaert · Mar 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Leon EdwardsMetricBryan Barberena

2.60

Strikes / min

5.35

2.44

Strikes absorbed / min

4.59

52%

Strike defense

44%

1.25

TDs / 15 min

0.13

63%

Takedown defense

50%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.16evenly matched on net striking+0.76

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Leon EdwardsBryan Barberena

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Leon Edwards(10 fights)Bryan Barberena(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -11.7|Blue +11.7

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red -2.2|Blue +2.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +35.0|Blue -35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Leon EdwardsTargetBryan Barberena

By target zone

33% acc · 57%

Head

43% acc · 64%

75% acc · 13%

Body

90% acc · 20%

100% acc · 30%

Leg

58% acc · 16%

By position

43% acc · 91%

Distance

30% acc · 39%

100% acc · 9%

Clinch

96% acc · 52%

Ground

57% acc · 9%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Leon Edwards rounds

even

Bryan Barberena rounds

Round 1Leon Edwards edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns1

Control2:27

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Bryan Barberena edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns1

Control2:07

Knockdowns0

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:25Control

1Knockdowns

Round 3Leon Edwards edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns1

Control3:33

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

23 / 51

Sig Strikes

44 / 87

43%

Sig Str %

47.7%

58 / 87

Total Strikes

115 / 163

3 / 6

TDs

0 / 0

61%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

8:07

Ctrl Time

1:25

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Bryan Barberena	5 / 16	25 / 37	0 / 0	0
1	Leon Edwards	4 / 13	12 / 21	1 / 1	1
2	Bryan Barberena	25 / 48	68 / 95	0 / 0	0
2	Leon Edwards	10 / 19	19 / 28	1 / 2	0
3	Bryan Barberena	14 / 23	22 / 31	0 / 0	1
3	Leon Edwards	9 / 19	27 / 38	1 / 3	2

Leon Edwards

StanceSouthpaw

Height74.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights19

Bryan Barberena

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights19