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Welterweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Belal Muhammad won · U-DEC R5

Elo1480

Elo1479

Leon EdwardsvsBelal MuhammadUFC Prediction Result

UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · Saturday, July 27, 2024Manchester, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Belal Muhammad won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupLeon Edwards: Well-roundedvsBelal Muhammad: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Leon Edwards wins(65.0%)

Actual result: Belal Muhammad wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Leon Edwards at -270 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Belal Muhammad enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Belal Muhammad has 27pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Leon Edwards (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Leon Edwards

Red Corner

Belal Muhammad

Blue Corner

-270

(73%)

Vegas Odds

+200

(33%)

1480

Elo

1479

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

5'11"

187.96 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Leon EdwardsL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Kamaru Usman · Aug 22

vs Kamaru Usman · Mar 23

vs Colby Covington · Dec 23

SUBvs Sean Brady · Mar 25

KOvs Carlos Prates · Nov 25

latest

Belal MuhammadL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Sean Brady · Oct 22

vs Gilbert Burns · May 23

vs Jack Della Maddalena · May 25

vs Ian Machado Garry · Nov 25

DECvs Gabriel Bonfim · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Leon EdwardsMetricBelal Muhammad

2.60

Strikes / min

4.43

2.44

Strikes absorbed / min

3.82

52%

Strike defense

55%

1.25

TDs / 15 min

2.14

63%

Takedown defense

90%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.16evenly matched on net striking+0.61

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Leon EdwardsBelal Muhammad

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Leon Edwards(10 fights)Belal Muhammad(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -224.0|Blue +224.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Leon EdwardsTargetBelal Muhammad

By target zone

60% acc · 68%

Head

54% acc · 87%

80% acc · 26%

Body

82% acc · 13%

100% acc · 6%

Leg

By position

60% acc · 74%

Distance

56% acc · 91%

86% acc · 13%

Clinch

0% acc

100% acc · 13%

Ground

100% acc · 9%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Leon Edwards rounds

even

Belal Muhammad rounds

Round 1Belal Muhammad edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:50

17Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:45Control

Round 2Belal Muhammad edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns1

Control0:49

13Sig. strikes

4Takedowns

3:25Control

Round 3Leon Edwards edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns1

Control4:18

4Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:15Control

Round 4Belal Muhammad edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:30

21Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:17Control

Round 5Belal Muhammad edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:44

13Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:20Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

47 / 71

Sig Strikes

68 / 121

62.8%

Sig Str %

54.6%

89 / 114

Total Strikes

192 / 281

2 / 2

TDs

9 / 13

100%

TD %

72.6%

Sub Att

Rev

7:11

Ctrl Time

12:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Belal Muhammad	17 / 34	51 / 75	2 / 2
1	Leon Edwards	15 / 21	25 / 31	0 / 0
2	Belal Muhammad	13 / 22	27 / 39	4 / 5
2	Leon Edwards	11 / 16	17 / 22	1 / 1
3	Belal Muhammad	4 / 9	9 / 15	1 / 1
3	Leon Edwards	2 / 4	19 / 22	1 / 1
4	Leon Edwards	6 / 10	10 / 14	0 / 0
4	Belal Muhammad	21 / 30	62 / 82	1 / 2
5	Belal Muhammad	13 / 26	43 / 70	1 / 3
5	Leon Edwards	13 / 20	18 / 25	0 / 0

Leon Edwards

StanceSouthpaw

Height74.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights19

Belal Muhammad

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights21