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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Leon Edwards won · SUB R3

Elo1480

Elo1358

Leon EdwardsvsAlbert TumenovUFC Prediction Result

UFC 204: Bisping vs. Henderson · Saturday, October 8, 2016Manchester, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Leon Edwards won

SUB · Round 3 · 3:01

Style matchupLeon Edwards: Well-roundedvsAlbert Tumenov: Striker

The well-rounded fighter has more paths to victory. The striker needs to be sharp early.

Model Prediction: Albert Tumenov wins(57.6%)

Actual result: Leon Edwards wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Albert Tumenov at -170 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Leon Edwards enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Leon Edwards (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Leon Edwards

Red Corner

Albert Tumenov

Blue Corner

+150

(40%)

Vegas Odds

-170

(63%)

1480

Elo

1358

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

5'11"

187.96 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Leon EdwardsL3 streak

oldest →

vs Kamaru Usman · Mar 23

vs Colby Covington · Dec 23

vs Belal Muhammad · Jul 24

SUBvs Sean Brady · Mar 25

KOvs Carlos Prates · Nov 25

latest

Albert Tumenov

oldest →

KOvs Matt Dwyer · Oct 14

DECvs Nico Musoke · Jan 15

KOvs Alan Jouban · Oct 15

vs Lorenz Larkin · Jan 16

SUBvs Gunnar Nelson · May 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Leon EdwardsMetricAlbert Tumenov

2.60

Strikes / min

3.76

2.44

Strikes absorbed / min

3.34

52%

Strike defense

58%

1.25

TDs / 15 min

0.20

63%

Takedown defense

75%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.16evenly matched on net striking+0.42

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Leon EdwardsAlbert Tumenov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Leon Edwards(10 fights)Albert Tumenov(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +121.6|Blue -121.6

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Leon EdwardsTargetAlbert Tumenov

By target zone

13% acc · 44%

Head

37% acc · 88%

50% acc · 44%

Body

43% acc · 9%

67% acc · 13%

Leg

100% acc · 3%

By position

20% acc · 88%

Distance

39% acc · 97%

67% acc · 13%

Clinch

33% acc · 3%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Leon Edwards rounds

even

Albert Tumenov rounds

Round 1Leon Edwards edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns2

Control3:51

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Albert Tumenov edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:09

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns1

Control0:33

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Fight Stats

Totals

16 / 72

Sig Strikes

32 / 83

23.3%

Sig Str %

42%

31 / 89

Total Strikes

34 / 86

3 / 10

TDs

0 / 0

27.7%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

4:33

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Albert Tumenov	1 / 2	3 / 5	0 / 0	0
1	Leon Edwards	4 / 13	19 / 30	2 / 6	0
2	Albert Tumenov	22 / 58	22 / 58	0 / 0	0
2	Leon Edwards	8 / 38	8 / 38	0 / 2	0
3	Albert Tumenov	9 / 23	9 / 23	0 / 0	0
3	Leon Edwards	4 / 21	4 / 21	1 / 2	1

Leon Edwards

StanceSouthpaw

Height74.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights19

Albert Tumenov

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights8