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Women's Flyweight

3 Rounds

Lauren Murphy won · U-DEC R3

Elo1493

Elo1495

Lauren MurphyvsMiesha TateUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rodriguez · Saturday, July 16, 2022Elmont, New York, USA

Official fight result

Lauren Murphy won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupLauren Murphy: Well-roundedvsMiesha Tate: Submission grappler

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Lauren Murphy wins(58.3%)

Actual result: Lauren Murphy wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Lauren Murphy at +175 American odds

+$175 profit

$275 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Lauren Murphy enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Lauren Murphy

Red Corner

Miesha Tate

Blue Corner

+175

(36%)

Vegas Odds

-205

(67%)

1493

Elo

1495

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'6"

170.18 cm

Reach

165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Lauren MurphyL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Liliya Shakirova · Oct 20

vs Joanne Calderwood · Jun 21

KOvs Valentina Shevchenko · Sep 21

vs Jessica Andrade · Jan 23

vs Eduarda Moura · Jul 25

latest

Miesha Tate

oldest →

vs Raquel Pennington · Nov 16

KOvs Marion Reneau · Jul 21

vs Ketlen Vieira · Nov 21

SUBvs Julia Avila · Dec 23

vs Yana Santos · May 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Lauren MurphyMetricMiesha Tate

3.94

Strikes / min

2.62

5.19

Strikes absorbed / min

3.05

56%

Strike defense

51%

1.09

TDs / 15 min

1.97

67%

Takedown defense

56%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

1.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.25evenly matched on net striking-0.43

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Lauren MurphyMiesha Tate

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Lauren Murphy(10 fights)Miesha Tate(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -2.2|Blue +2.2

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Layoff

Red +56.0|Blue -56.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Lauren MurphyTargetMiesha Tate

By target zone

50% acc · 75%

Head

50% acc · 72%

83% acc · 24%

Body

53% acc · 21%

100% acc · 1%

Leg

75% acc · 7%

By position

48% acc · 67%

Distance

49% acc · 79%

79% acc · 30%

Clinch

69% acc · 21%

100% acc · 3%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Lauren Murphy rounds

even

Miesha Tate rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control0:32

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:04Control

Round 2Lauren Murphy edged it

Sig. strikes38

Takedowns1

Control0:41

32Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:00Control

Round 3Lauren Murphy edged it

Sig. strikes38

Takedowns1

Control0:05

28Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

102 / 184

Sig Strikes

85 / 164

55%

Sig Str %

52%

128 / 211

Total Strikes

121 / 201

2 / 6

TDs

0 / 7

33.3%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

1:18

Ctrl Time

2:05

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Miesha Tate	25 / 47	38 / 60	0 / 3
1	Lauren Murphy	26 / 48	35 / 57	0 / 2
2	Miesha Tate	32 / 55	46 / 69	0 / 1
2	Lauren Murphy	38 / 66	53 / 82	1 / 2
3	Miesha Tate	28 / 62	37 / 72	0 / 3
3	Lauren Murphy	38 / 70	40 / 72	1 / 2

Lauren Murphy

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights15

Miesha Tate

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights14