← All fights/Event page

Women's Flyweight

3 Rounds

Lauren Murphy won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1493

Elo1389

Lauren MurphyvsMara Romero BorellaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Lawler · Saturday, August 3, 2019Newark, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Lauren Murphy won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 1:46

Style matchupLauren Murphy: Well-roundedvsMara Romero Borella: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Mara Romero Borella wins(57.5%)

Actual result: Lauren Murphy wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mara Romero Borella at -220 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mara Romero Borella enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Mara Romero Borella has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Lauren Murphy

Red Corner

Mara Romero Borella

Blue Corner

+180

(36%)

Vegas Odds

-220

(69%)

1493

Elo

1389

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'6"

170.18 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Lauren MurphyL2 streak

oldest →

vs Joanne Calderwood · Jun 21

KOvs Valentina Shevchenko · Sep 21

vs Miesha Tate · Jul 22

vs Jessica Andrade · Jan 23

vs Eduarda Moura · Jul 25

latest

Mara Romero BorellaL3 streak

oldest →

vs Katlyn Chookagian · Jan 18

vs Taila Santos · Feb 19

vs Montana De La Rosa · Feb 20

SUBvs Cortney Casey · May 20

SUBvs Mayra Bueno Silva · Sep 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Lauren MurphyMetricMara Romero Borella

3.94

Strikes / min

2.54

5.19

Strikes absorbed / min

2.48

56%

Strike defense

71%

1.09

TDs / 15 min

1.83

67%

Takedown defense

66%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.25Δ 1.31 — meaningful gap+0.06

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Lauren MurphyMara Romero Borella

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Lauren Murphy(10 fights)Mara Romero Borella(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +104.1|Blue -104.1

Recent Form

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Striker Score

Red +1.8|Blue -1.8

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +246.0|Blue -246.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Lauren MurphyTargetMara Romero Borella

By target zone

17% acc · 83%

Head

26% acc · 73%

60% acc · 13%

Body

100% acc · 4%

Leg

60% acc · 27%

By position

15% acc · 71%

Distance

31% acc · 100%

50% acc · 13%

Clinch

80% acc · 17%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Lauren Murphy rounds

even

Mara Romero Borella rounds

Round 1Mara Romero Borella edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:00

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:08Control

Round 2Lauren Murphy edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control2:14

6Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:37Control

Round 3Lauren Murphy edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:02

Knockdowns1

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

24 / 123

Sig Strikes

22 / 72

19.7%

Sig Str %

27.7%

35 / 144

Total Strikes

35 / 87

0 / 1

TDs

1 / 3

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

2:16

Ctrl Time

0:45

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Mara Romero Borella	14 / 41	15 / 43	0 / 0
1	Lauren Murphy	10 / 59	10 / 60	0 / 0
2	Mara Romero Borella	6 / 22	18 / 35	1 / 1
2	Lauren Murphy	9 / 43	20 / 63	0 / 1
3	Mara Romero Borella	2 / 9	2 / 9	0 / 2
3	Lauren Murphy	5 / 21	5 / 21	0 / 0

Lauren Murphy

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights15

Mara Romero Borella

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights8