Women's Flyweight

3 Rounds

Lauren Murphy won · SUB

Elo1493

Lauren MurphyvsLiliya ShakirovaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje · Saturday, October 24, 2020Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Lauren Murphy won

SUB

Model Prediction: Lauren Murphy wins(73.6%)

Actual result: Lauren Murphy wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Lauren Murphy at -215 American odds

+$47 profit

$147 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Liliya Shakirova has 18pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Lauren Murphy has 67pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Lauren Murphy

Red Corner

Liliya Shakirova

Blue Corner

-215

(68%)

Vegas Odds

+170

(37%)

1493

Elo

1493

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'4"

170.18 cm

Reach

165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Lauren MurphyL2 streak

oldest →

vs Joanne Calderwood · Jun 21

KOvs Valentina Shevchenko · Sep 21

vs Miesha Tate · Jul 22

vs Jessica Andrade · Jan 23

vs Eduarda Moura · Jul 25

latest

Liliya ShakirovaNo prior UFC fights on record.

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Lauren MurphyMetricLiliya Shakirova

3.94

Strikes / min

2.70

5.19

Strikes absorbed / min

2.58

56%

Strike defense

74%

1.09

TDs / 15 min

0.00

67%

Takedown defense

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.25Δ 1.37 — meaningful gap+0.12

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Lauren MurphyLiliya Shakirova

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Lauren Murphy(10 fights)Liliya Shakirova(1 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Recent Form

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Striker Score

Red -47.9|Blue +47.9

Grappler Score

Red -49.9|Blue +49.9

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Lauren MurphyTargetLiliya Shakirova

By target zone

21% acc · 73%

Head

16% acc · 30%

86% acc · 27%

Body

41% acc · 30%

Leg

69% acc · 39%

By position

17% acc · 55%

Distance

31% acc · 100%

73% acc · 36%

Clinch

100% acc · 9%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Lauren Murphy rounds

even

Liliya Shakirova rounds

Round 1Liliya Shakirova edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:05

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:29Control

Round 2Lauren Murphy edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns1

Control1:05

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Fight Stats

Totals

22 / 85

Sig Strikes

23 / 75

26%

Sig Str %

29.5%

32 / 96

Total Strikes

27 / 80

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 3

100%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

1:10

Ctrl Time

0:29

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Liliya Shakirova	15 / 47	16 / 48	0 / 3	0
1	Lauren Murphy	12 / 48	18 / 54	0 / 0	0
2	Liliya Shakirova	8 / 28	11 / 32	0 / 0	0
2	Lauren Murphy	10 / 37	14 / 42	1 / 1	1

Lauren Murphy

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights15

Liliya Shakirova

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights1