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Women's Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Lauren Murphy won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1493

Elo1358

Lauren MurphyvsKelly FaszholzUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Cowboy · Sunday, February 21, 2016Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA

Official fight result

Lauren Murphy won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 4:55

Style matchupLauren Murphy: Well-roundedvsKelly Faszholz: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Lauren Murphy wins(55.8%)

Actual result: Lauren Murphy wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Lauren Murphy at -310 American odds

+$32 profit

$132 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Lauren Murphy has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Lauren Murphy

Red Corner

Kelly Faszholz

Blue Corner

-310

(76%)

Vegas Odds

+255

(28%)

1493

Elo

1358

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'8"

170.18 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Lauren MurphyL2 streak

oldest →

vs Joanne Calderwood · Jun 21

KOvs Valentina Shevchenko · Sep 21

vs Miesha Tate · Jul 22

vs Jessica Andrade · Jan 23

vs Eduarda Moura · Jul 25

latest

Kelly Faszholz

oldest →

vs Ketlen Vieira · Oct 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Lauren MurphyMetricKelly Faszholz

3.94

Strikes / min

4.01

5.19

Strikes absorbed / min

3.61

56%

Strike defense

52%

1.09

TDs / 15 min

0.00

67%

Takedown defense

44%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.25Δ 1.65 — meaningful gap+0.40

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Lauren MurphyKelly Faszholz

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Lauren Murphy(10 fights)Kelly Faszholz(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +134.9|Blue -134.9

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red -48.3|Blue +48.3

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Lauren MurphyTargetKelly Faszholz

By target zone

48% acc · 71%

Head

45% acc · 66%

89% acc · 17%

Body

75% acc · 28%

100% acc · 13%

Leg

83% acc · 7%

By position

42% acc · 49%

Distance

52% acc · 88%

75% acc · 13%

Clinch

60% acc · 12%

84% acc · 38%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Lauren Murphy rounds

even

Kelly Faszholz rounds

Round 1Kelly Faszholz edged it

Sig. strikes32

Takedowns0

Control1:05

41Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:35Control

Round 2Kelly Faszholz edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:51

29Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:26Control

Round 3Lauren Murphy edged it

Sig. strikes38

Takedowns1

Control4:21

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

95 / 171

Sig Strikes

76 / 145

56.3%

Sig Str %

52%

188 / 272

Total Strikes

96 / 167

1 / 3

TDs

0 / 2

33.3%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

6:17

Ctrl Time

1:01

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Kelly Faszholz	41 / 72	54 / 85	0 / 0
1	Lauren Murphy	32 / 65	52 / 87	0 / 1
2	Kelly Faszholz	29 / 62	35 / 70	0 / 2
2	Lauren Murphy	25 / 56	35 / 67	0 / 1
3	Kelly Faszholz	6 / 11	7 / 12	0 / 0
3	Lauren Murphy	38 / 50	101 / 118	1 / 1

Lauren Murphy

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights15

Kelly Faszholz

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach—

Fights2