Women's Flyweight

3 Rounds

Lauren Murphy won · S-DEC R3

Elo1493

Lauren MurphyvsJoanne CalderwoodUFC Prediction Result

UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2 · Saturday, June 12, 2021Glendale, Arizona, USA

Official fight result

Lauren Murphy won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Joanne Calderwood wins(54.9%)

Actual result: Lauren Murphy wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Joanne Calderwood at -148 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Lauren Murphy

Red Corner

Joanne Calderwood

Blue Corner

+117

(46%)

Vegas Odds

-148

(60%)

1493

Elo

1493

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'6"

170.18 cm

Reach

165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Lauren MurphyL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Liliya Shakirova · Oct 20

KOvs Valentina Shevchenko · Sep 21

vs Miesha Tate · Jul 22

vs Jessica Andrade · Jan 23

vs Eduarda Moura · Jul 25

latest

Joanne Calderwood

oldest →

vs Ariane Lipski · Jan 19

vs Katlyn Chookagian · Jun 19

vs Andrea Lee · Sep 19

SUBvs Jennifer Maia · Aug 20

vs Jessica Eye · Jan 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Lauren MurphyMetricJoanne Calderwood

3.94

Strikes / min

—

5.19

Strikes absorbed / min

—

56%

Strike defense

—

1.09

TDs / 15 min

—

67%

Takedown defense

—

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

—

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Lauren MurphyJoanne Calderwood

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Lauren Murphy(10 fights)Joanne Calderwood(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Recent Form

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Striker Score

Red -1.3|Blue +1.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +91.0|Blue -91.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Lauren Murphy

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights15

Joanne Calderwood

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights1