Women's Flyweight

3 Rounds

Jessica Andrade won · U-DEC R3

Elo1493

Elo1484

Lauren MurphyvsJessica AndradeUFC Prediction Result

UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill · Saturday, January 21, 2023Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Official fight result

Jessica Andrade won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupLauren Murphy: Well-roundedvsJessica Andrade: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Jessica Andrade wins(77.5%)

Actual result: Jessica Andrade wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jessica Andrade at -490 American odds

+$20 profit

$120 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jessica Andrade enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Lauren Murphy has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Lauren Murphy

Red Corner

Jessica Andrade

Blue Corner

+390

(20%)

Vegas Odds

-490

(83%)

1493

Elo

1484

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'1"

170.18 cm

Reach

157.48 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Lauren Murphy

oldest →

SUBvs Liliya Shakirova · Oct 20

vs Joanne Calderwood · Jun 21

KOvs Valentina Shevchenko · Sep 21

vs Miesha Tate · Jul 22

vs Eduarda Moura · Jul 25

latest

Jessica AndradeL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Mackenzie Dern · Nov 23

vs Marina Rodriguez · Apr 24

vs Natalia Silva · Sep 24

SUBvs Jasmine Jasudavicius · May 25

vs Loopy Godinez · Aug 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Lauren MurphyMetricJessica Andrade

3.94

Strikes / min

6.37

5.19

Strikes absorbed / min

5.58

56%

Strike defense

54%

1.09

TDs / 15 min

2.10

67%

Takedown defense

75%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.25Δ 2.04 — meaningful gap+0.79

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Lauren MurphyJessica Andrade

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Lauren Murphy(10 fights)Jessica Andrade(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +9.4|Blue -9.4

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -1.5|Blue +1.5

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red -84.0|Blue +84.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Lauren MurphyTargetJessica Andrade

By target zone

30% acc · 81%

Head

161

55% acc · 70%

74% acc · 14%

Body

85% acc · 10%

83% acc · 5%

Leg

94% acc · 20%

By position

33% acc · 90%

Distance

208

62% acc · 90%

59% acc · 10%

Clinch

73% acc · 10%

Ground

100% acc · 0%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Lauren Murphy rounds

even

Jessica Andrade rounds

Round 1Jessica Andrade edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:08

61Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Jessica Andrade edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns0

Control0:01

75Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:21Control

Round 3Jessica Andrade edged it

Sig. strikes49

Takedowns0

Control0:00

95Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:50Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

100 / 293

Sig Strikes

231 / 369

33%

Sig Str %

61.7%

103 / 296

Total Strikes

237 / 375

0 / 15

TDs

1 / 1

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:09

Ctrl Time

1:11

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jessica Andrade	61 / 107	62 / 108	0 / 0
1	Lauren Murphy	22 / 91	24 / 93	0 / 5
2	Jessica Andrade	75 / 121	78 / 124	0 / 0
2	Lauren Murphy	29 / 95	29 / 95	0 / 6
3	Jessica Andrade	95 / 141	97 / 143	1 / 1
3	Lauren Murphy	49 / 107	50 / 108	0 / 4

Lauren Murphy

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights15

Jessica Andrade

StanceOrthodox

Height61.0"

Reach62.0"

Fights30