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Women's Flyweight

3 Rounds

Eduarda Moura won · U-DEC R3

Elo1493

Elo1503

Lauren MurphyvsEduarda MouraUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira · Saturday, July 12, 2025Nashville, Tennessee, USA

Official fight result

Eduarda Moura won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupLauren Murphy: Well-roundedvsEduarda Moura: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Eduarda Moura wins(75.8%)

Actual result: Eduarda Moura wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Eduarda Moura at -650 American odds

+$15 profit

$115 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Lauren Murphy

Red Corner

Eduarda Moura

Blue Corner

+420

(19%)

Vegas Odds

-650

(87%)

1493

Elo

1503

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'6"

170.18 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Lauren Murphy

oldest →

SUBvs Liliya Shakirova · Oct 20

vs Joanne Calderwood · Jun 21

KOvs Valentina Shevchenko · Sep 21

vs Miesha Tate · Jul 22

vs Jessica Andrade · Jan 23

latest

Eduarda Moura

oldest →

KOvs Montserrat Conejo Ruiz · Nov 23

vs Denise Gomes · Jun 24

vs Veronica Hardy · Nov 24

vs Wang Cong · Feb 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Lauren MurphyMetricEduarda Moura

3.94

Strikes / min

2.57

5.19

Strikes absorbed / min

2.50

56%

Strike defense

58%

1.09

TDs / 15 min

3.58

67%

Takedown defense

80%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.25Δ 1.32 — meaningful gap+0.07

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Lauren MurphyEduarda Moura

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Lauren Murphy(10 fights)Eduarda Moura(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -9.7|Blue +9.7

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Layoff

Red +665.0|Blue -665.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Lauren MurphyTargetEduarda Moura

By target zone

26% acc · 100%

Head

24% acc · 81%

Body

50% acc · 2%

0% acc

Leg

92% acc · 17%

By position

24% acc · 89%

Distance

27% acc · 100%

80% acc · 11%

Clinch

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Lauren Murphy rounds

even

Eduarda Moura rounds

Round 1Eduarda Moura edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns1

Control0:03

19Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:32Control

Round 2Eduarda Moura edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:01

20Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:23Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns1

Control0:59

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:07Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

38 / 145

Sig Strikes

64 / 235

24.3%

Sig Str %

27.3%

67 / 179

Total Strikes

74 / 248

2 / 9

TDs

2 / 3

23.3%

TD %

75%

Sub Att

Rev

1:03

Ctrl Time

3:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Eduarda Moura	19 / 58	26 / 68	1 / 1	0
1	Lauren Murphy	6 / 33	13 / 41	1 / 2	0
2	Eduarda Moura	20 / 77	22 / 79	1 / 2	0
2	Lauren Murphy	11 / 51	27 / 70	0 / 2	0
3	Eduarda Moura	25 / 100	26 / 101	0 / 0	0
3	Lauren Murphy	21 / 61	27 / 68	1 / 5	2

Lauren Murphy

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights15

Eduarda Moura

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights5