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Women's Flyweight

3 Rounds

Lauren Murphy won · S-DEC R3

Elo1493

Elo1477

Lauren MurphyvsAndrea LeeUFC Prediction Result

UFC 247: Jones vs. Reyes · Saturday, February 8, 2020Houston, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Lauren Murphy won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupLauren Murphy: Well-roundedvsAndrea Lee: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Andrea Lee wins(65.9%)

Actual result: Lauren Murphy wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Andrea Lee at -320 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Andrea Lee enters on a 5-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Lauren Murphy

Red Corner

Andrea Lee

Blue Corner

+260

(28%)

Vegas Odds

-320

(76%)

1493

Elo

1477

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'6"

170.18 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Lauren MurphyL2 streak

oldest →

vs Joanne Calderwood · Jun 21

KOvs Valentina Shevchenko · Sep 21

vs Miesha Tate · Jul 22

vs Jessica Andrade · Jan 23

vs Eduarda Moura · Jul 25

latest

Andrea LeeL5 streak

oldest →

vs Maycee Barber · Mar 23

vs Natalia Silva · Aug 23

vs Miranda Maverick · Feb 24

vs Montana De La Rosa · Jun 24

vs JJ Aldrich · Mar 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Lauren MurphyMetricAndrea Lee

3.94

Strikes / min

4.62

5.19

Strikes absorbed / min

3.91

56%

Strike defense

61%

1.09

TDs / 15 min

1.65

67%

Takedown defense

53%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.25Δ 1.96 — meaningful gap+0.71

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Lauren MurphyAndrea Lee

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Lauren Murphy(10 fights)Andrea Lee(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +16.0|Blue -16.0

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red +1.3|Blue -1.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +35.0|Blue -35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Lauren MurphyTargetAndrea Lee

By target zone

39% acc · 88%

Head

26% acc · 49%

60% acc · 11%

Body

67% acc · 33%

100% acc · 1%

Leg

86% acc · 18%

By position

39% acc · 94%

Distance

38% acc · 95%

71% acc · 6%

Clinch

80% acc · 4%

Ground

100% acc · 1%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Lauren Murphy rounds

even

Andrea Lee rounds

Round 1Andrea Lee edged it

Sig. strikes32

Takedowns1

Control0:29

43Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes33

Takedowns1

Control0:22

38Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Andrea Lee edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control1:40

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:34Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

80 / 197

Sig Strikes

104 / 267

39.7%

Sig Str %

38.3%

107 / 228

Total Strikes

107 / 271

2 / 4

TDs

0 / 3

66.5%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

2:31

Ctrl Time

0:37

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Andrea Lee	43 / 104	44 / 106	0 / 1	0
1	Lauren Murphy	32 / 80	33 / 82	1 / 1	0
2	Andrea Lee	38 / 103	39 / 104	0 / 1	0
2	Lauren Murphy	33 / 73	41 / 84	1 / 3	0
3	Andrea Lee	23 / 60	24 / 61	0 / 1	1
3	Lauren Murphy	15 / 44	33 / 62	0 / 0	0

Lauren Murphy

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights15

Andrea Lee

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights14