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Women's Flyweight

3 Rounds

Poliana Botelho won · U-DEC R3

Elo1377

Elo1426

Lauren MuellervsPoliana BotelhoUFC Prediction Result

UFC 236: Holloway vs. Poirier 2 · Saturday, April 13, 2019Atlanta, Georgia, USA

Official fight result

Poliana Botelho won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupLauren Mueller: Pressure fightervsPoliana Botelho: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Poliana Botelho wins(51.2%)

Actual result: Poliana Botelho wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Poliana Botelho at -165 American odds

+$61 profit

$161 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Poliana Botelho enters on a 4-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Lauren Mueller

Red Corner

Poliana Botelho

Blue Corner

+145

(41%)

Vegas Odds

-165

(62%)

1377

Elo

1426

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'8"

170.18 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Lauren MuellerL2 streak

oldest →

vs Shana Dobson · Apr 18

SUBvs Wu Yanan · Nov 18

vs JJ Aldrich · Oct 19

latest

Poliana BotelhoL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Syuri Kondo · May 18

SUBvs Cynthia Calvillo · Nov 18

vs Gillian Robertson · Oct 20

vs Luana Carolina · May 21

SUBvs Karine Silva · Jun 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Lauren MuellerMetricPoliana Botelho

4.08

Strikes / min

2.90

3.77

Strikes absorbed / min

2.80

58%

Strike defense

54%

0.70

TDs / 15 min

0.85

71%

Takedown defense

76%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.31evenly matched on net striking+0.10

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Lauren MuellerPoliana Botelho

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Lauren Mueller(4 fights)Poliana Botelho(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -49.4|Blue +49.4

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -7.0|Blue +7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Lauren MuellerTargetPoliana Botelho

By target zone

32% acc · 60%

Head

42% acc · 40%

50% acc · 19%

Body

64% acc · 30%

91% acc · 21%

Leg

82% acc · 30%

By position

39% acc · 89%

Distance

47% acc · 70%

80% acc · 9%

Clinch

100% acc · 17%

50% acc · 2%

Ground

100% acc · 13%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Lauren Mueller rounds

even

Poliana Botelho rounds

Round 1Poliana Botelho edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:19

25Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:14Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control1:06

12Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:13Control

Round 3Lauren Mueller edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control1:30

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:24Control

Fight Stats

Totals

47 / 116

Sig Strikes

47 / 84

40.7%

Sig Str %

53.3%

105 / 182

Total Strikes

152 / 202

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 2

—

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

2:55

Ctrl Time

6:51

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Poliana Botelho	25 / 37	64 / 80	1 / 1
1	Lauren Mueller	9 / 22	26 / 42	0 / 0
2	Poliana Botelho	12 / 23	47 / 65	1 / 1
2	Lauren Mueller	18 / 39	31 / 54	0 / 0
3	Poliana Botelho	10 / 24	41 / 57	0 / 0
3	Lauren Mueller	20 / 55	48 / 86	0 / 0

Lauren Mueller

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights4

Poliana Botelho

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights7