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Lightweight

3 Rounds

MarQuel Mederos won · U-DEC R3

Elo1492

Elo1526

Landon QuinonesvsMarQuel MederosUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Imavov · Saturday, February 3, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

MarQuel Mederos won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupLandon Quinones: Pressure fightervsMarQuel Mederos: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Landon Quinones wins(60.4%)

Actual result: MarQuel Mederos wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Landon Quinones has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Landon Quinones (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Landon Quinones

Red Corner

MarQuel Mederos

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1492

Elo

1526

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'10"

177.8 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Landon Quinones

oldest →

vs Nasrat Haqparast · Sep 23

latest

MarQuel Mederos

oldest →

vs Austin Hubbard · Mar 25

vs Mark Choinski · Jun 25

DECvs Chris Padilla · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Landon QuinonesMetricMarQuel Mederos

6.77

Strikes / min

5.46

7.70

Strikes absorbed / min

4.58

55%

Strike defense

52%

0.50

TDs / 15 min

0.23

100%

Takedown defense

82%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.93Δ 1.81 — meaningful gap+0.88

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Landon QuinonesMarQuel Mederos

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Landon Quinones(2 fights)MarQuel Mederos(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -33.8|Blue +33.8

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red -49.4|Blue +49.4

Grappler Score

Red -49.9|Blue +49.9

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Landon QuinonesTargetMarQuel Mederos

By target zone

36% acc · 75%

Head

27% acc · 47%

42% acc · 20%

Body

69% acc · 30%

38% acc · 5%

Leg

82% acc · 23%

By position

37% acc · 98%

Distance

39% acc · 92%

25% acc · 2%

Clinch

100% acc · 8%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Landon Quinones rounds

even

MarQuel Mederos rounds

Round 1Landon Quinones edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns1

Control1:17

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:07Control

Round 2MarQuel Mederos edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:05

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:18Control

Round 3MarQuel Mederos edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:42

27Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:48Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

55 / 149

Sig Strikes

60 / 146

36.7%

Sig Str %

40%

78 / 176

Total Strikes

74 / 165

1 / 3

TDs

0 / 5

33%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

2:04

Ctrl Time

4:13

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	MarQuel Mederos	12 / 36	15 / 42	0 / 0
1	Landon Quinones	19 / 47	31 / 62	1 / 3
2	MarQuel Mederos	21 / 55	26 / 61	0 / 0
2	Landon Quinones	18 / 48	22 / 53	0 / 0
3	MarQuel Mederos	27 / 55	33 / 62	0 / 5
3	Landon Quinones	18 / 54	25 / 61	0 / 0

Landon Quinones

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights2

MarQuel Mederos

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights3