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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Lando Vannata won · S-DEC

Elo1478

Elo1420

Lando VannatavsMike GrundyUFC Prediction Result

UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler · Saturday, May 15, 2021Houston, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Lando Vannata won

S-DEC

Style matchupLando Vannata: Pressure fightervsMike Grundy: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Lando Vannata wins(50.3%)

Actual result: Lando Vannata wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Lando Vannata at +105 American odds

+$105 profit

$205 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Lando Vannata enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Lando Vannata has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Lando Vannata

Red Corner

Mike Grundy

Blue Corner

+105

(49%)

Vegas Odds

-125

(56%)

1478

Elo

1420

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'7"

180.34 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Lando VannataL4 streak

oldest →

vs Yancy Medeiros · Feb 20

vs Bobby Green · Aug 20

SUBvs Charles Jourdain · Apr 22

vs Daniel Zellhuber · Apr 23

KOvs Darrius Flowers · Apr 26

latest

Mike GrundyL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Nad Narimani · Mar 19

vs Movsar Evloev · Jul 20

SUBvs Makwan Amirkhani · Mar 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Lando VannataMetricMike Grundy

4.52

Strikes / min

2.09

4.71

Strikes absorbed / min

4.45

54%

Strike defense

56%

1.24

TDs / 15 min

4.06

66%

Takedown defense

50%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.19Δ 2.17 — meaningful gap-2.36

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Lando VannataMike Grundy

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Lando Vannata(10 fights)Mike Grundy(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +57.8|Blue -57.8

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red +1.3|Blue -1.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -7.0|Blue +7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Lando VannataTargetMike Grundy

By target zone

34% acc · 50%

Head

43% acc · 59%

75% acc · 34%

Body

68% acc · 41%

93% acc · 16%

Leg

By position

45% acc · 91%

Distance

47% acc · 88%

100% acc · 9%

Clinch

100% acc · 13%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Lando Vannata rounds

even

Mike Grundy rounds

Round 1Lando Vannata edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:00

7Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:34Control

Round 2Lando Vannata edged it

Sig. strikes39

Takedowns0

Control0:00

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:18Control

Round 3Lando Vannata edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns1

Control0:23

16Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:45Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

80 / 168

Sig Strikes

32 / 63

47%

Sig Str %

51%

83 / 173

Total Strikes

34 / 65

1 / 1

TDs

3 / 20

100%

TD %

12.7%

Sub Att

Rev

0:23

Ctrl Time

2:37

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Mike Grundy	7 / 12	9 / 14	2 / 9
1	Lando Vannata	20 / 40	21 / 41	0 / 0
2	Mike Grundy	9 / 22	9 / 22	0 / 5
2	Lando Vannata	39 / 76	39 / 76	0 / 0
3	Mike Grundy	16 / 29	16 / 29	1 / 6
3	Lando Vannata	21 / 52	23 / 56	1 / 1

Lando Vannata

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights12

Mike Grundy

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights4