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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Darrius Flowers won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1478

Elo1506

Lando VannatavsDarrius FlowersUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan · Saturday, April 4, 2026Las Vegas, USA

Official fight result

Darrius Flowers won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 0:52

Engine 7.0 was correct

Pre-fight pick: Darrius Flowers

If $100 had been placed on our pre-fight pick

Darrius Flowers at +175 American odds · hypothetical only

+$175 profit

$275 total returned

Style matchupLando Vannata: Pressure fightervsDarrius Flowers: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Lando Vannata wins(63.4%)

Actual result: Darrius Flowers wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Darrius Flowers enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Lando Vannata has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Lando Vannata

Red Corner

Darrius Flowers

Blue Corner

-225

(69%)

Vegas Odds

+175

(36%)

1478

Elo

1506

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'9"

180.34 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Lando VannataL2 streak

oldest →

vs Yancy Medeiros · Feb 20

vs Bobby Green · Aug 20

vs Mike Grundy · May 21

SUBvs Charles Jourdain · Apr 22

vs Daniel Zellhuber · Apr 23

latest

Darrius FlowersL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Jake Matthews · Jul 23

vs Michael Johnson · Feb 24

SUBvs Evan Elder · Jul 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Lando VannataMetricDarrius Flowers

4.52

Strikes / min

3.13

4.71

Strikes absorbed / min

5.35

54%

Strike defense

42%

1.24

TDs / 15 min

1.65

66%

Takedown defense

66%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.19Δ 2.03 — meaningful gap-2.22

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Lando VannataDarrius Flowers

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Lando Vannata(10 fights)Darrius Flowers(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -28.7|Blue +28.7

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +455.0|Blue -455.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Lando VannataTargetDarrius Flowers

By target zone

76% acc · 70%

Head

38% acc · 50%

63% acc · 19%

Body

100% acc · 20%

100% acc · 11%

Leg

100% acc · 30%

By position

74% acc · 74%

Distance

52% acc · 75%

100% acc · 11%

Clinch

100% acc · 5%

67% acc · 15%

Ground

67% acc · 20%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Lando Vannata rounds

even

Darrius Flowers rounds

Round 1Lando Vannata edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns2

Control2:16

17Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:18Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:00

3Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:05Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

27 / 36

Sig Strikes

20 / 36

73%

Sig Str %

53%

31 / 42

Total Strikes

44 / 69

2 / 7

TDs

2 / 2

16.5%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

2:16

Ctrl Time

0:23

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Darrius Flowers	17 / 30	35 / 53	1 / 1	1
1	Lando Vannata	22 / 29	26 / 35	2 / 6	0
2	Darrius Flowers	3 / 6	9 / 16	1 / 1	0
2	Lando Vannata	5 / 7	5 / 7	0 / 1	0

The Pick

Vegas favorite

Lando Vannata

Odds

-225

Market-implied probability

Darrius Flowers 34%

Model pick shown for research — not a betting edge.

$100 bet returns

Lando Vannata$144

Darrius Flowers (model pick · research)$275

34% market-implied · model 43% (research) · vufc_v4_pure_sklearn_histgb_20260517_110941

🔒 Pick locked May 17, 2026, 11:10 AM UTC · never rewritten

Lando Vannata

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights12

Darrius Flowers

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights4