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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Kyoji Horiguchi won · U-DEC R3

Elo1514

Elo1361

Kyoji HoriguchivsNeil SeeryUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arlovski · Sunday, May 8, 2016Rotterdam, Zuid-Holland, Netherlands

Official fight result

Kyoji Horiguchi won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Kyoji Horiguchi wins(53.9%)

Actual result: Kyoji Horiguchi wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Kyoji Horiguchi at -600 American odds

+$17 profit

$117 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Kyoji Horiguchi

Red Corner

Neil Seery

Blue Corner

-600

(86%)

Vegas Odds

+450

(18%)

1514

Elo

1361

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'4"

Height

5'4"

160.02 cm

Reach

162.56 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Kyoji Horiguchi

oldest →

vs Chico Camus · Sep 15

vs Ali Bagautinov · Nov 16

SUBvs Tagir Ulanbekov · Nov 25

vs Amir Albazi · Feb 26

KOvs Manel Kape · Jun 26

latest

Neil Seery

oldest →

vs Phil Harris · Jul 14

vs Chris Beal · Jan 15

vs Louis Smolka · Jul 15

SUBvs Jon Delos Reyes · Oct 15

SUBvs Alexandre Pantoja · Jul 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Kyoji HoriguchiMetricNeil Seery

3.77

Strikes / min

3.56

2.13

Strikes absorbed / min

3.79

63%

Strike defense

58%

1.61

TDs / 15 min

0.78

61%

Takedown defense

53%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

1.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.64Δ 1.87 — meaningful gap-0.23

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Kyoji HoriguchiNeil Seery

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Kyoji Horiguchi(10 fights)Neil Seery(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +153.3|Blue -153.3

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +28.0|Blue -28.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Kyoji HoriguchiTargetNeil Seery

By target zone

41% acc · 61%

Head

40% acc · 90%

67% acc · 25%

Body

25% acc · 5%

100% acc · 14%

Leg

100% acc · 5%

By position

46% acc · 69%

Distance

37% acc · 85%

80% acc · 17%

Clinch

60% acc · 8%

48% acc · 14%

Ground

60% acc · 8%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Kyoji Horiguchi rounds

even

Neil Seery rounds

Round 1Kyoji Horiguchi edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns2

Control2:26

Knockdowns2

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:08Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Kyoji Horiguchi edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns2

Control1:25

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Kyoji Horiguchi edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns2

Control1:56

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:16Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

72 / 145

Sig Strikes

40 / 101

49.7%

Sig Str %

41.3%

83 / 158

Total Strikes

51 / 112

6 / 8

TDs

0 / 5

83.3%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

5:47

Ctrl Time

0:24

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Neil Seery	10 / 20	15 / 25	0 / 1	1
1	Kyoji Horiguchi	25 / 52	30 / 59	2 / 2	0
2	Neil Seery	12 / 42	14 / 44	0 / 2	0
2	Kyoji Horiguchi	24 / 47	27 / 50	2 / 4	0
3	Neil Seery	18 / 39	22 / 43	0 / 2	0
3	Kyoji Horiguchi	23 / 46	26 / 49	2 / 2	0

Kyoji Horiguchi

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach63.0"

Fights11

Neil Seery

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights7