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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Kyoji Horiguchi won · U-DEC R3

Elo1514

Elo1354

Kyoji HoriguchivsLouis GaudinotUFC Prediction Result

UFC 182: Jones vs Cormier · Saturday, January 3, 2015Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Kyoji Horiguchi won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Kyoji Horiguchi wins(77.9%)

Actual result: Kyoji Horiguchi wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Kyoji Horiguchi at -525 American odds

+$19 profit

$119 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Louis Gaudinot threatens submissions; Kyoji Horiguchi has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Kyoji Horiguchi has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Kyoji Horiguchi has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Kyoji Horiguchi

Red Corner

Louis Gaudinot

Blue Corner

-525

(84%)

Vegas Odds

+450

(18%)

1514

Elo

1354

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'4"

Height

5'3"

160.02 cm

Reach

160.02 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Kyoji Horiguchi

oldest →

vs Neil Seery · May 16

vs Ali Bagautinov · Nov 16

SUBvs Tagir Ulanbekov · Nov 25

vs Amir Albazi · Feb 26

KOvs Manel Kape · Jun 26

latest

Louis Gaudinot

oldest →

KOvs Johnny Bedford · Dec 11

SUBvs John Lineker · May 12

vs Tim Elliott · Aug 13

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Kyoji HoriguchiMetricLouis Gaudinot

3.77

Strikes / min

2.34

2.13

Strikes absorbed / min

6.42

63%

Strike defense

48%

1.61

TDs / 15 min

0.57

61%

Takedown defense

31%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.64Δ 5.72 — meaningful gap-4.08

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Kyoji HoriguchiLouis Gaudinot

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Kyoji Horiguchi(10 fights)Louis Gaudinot(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +160.3|Blue -160.3

Recent Form

Red +1.6|Blue -1.6

Striker Score

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -385.0|Blue +385.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Kyoji HoriguchiTargetLouis Gaudinot

By target zone

34% acc · 68%

Head

11% acc · 26%

67% acc · 23%

Body

20% acc · 9%

100% acc · 9%

Leg

68% acc · 65%

By position

41% acc · 98%

Distance

25% acc · 91%

50% acc · 2%

Clinch

40% acc · 9%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Kyoji Horiguchi rounds

even

Louis Gaudinot rounds

Round 1Kyoji Horiguchi edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:26

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Kyoji Horiguchi edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns1

Control1:02

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Kyoji Horiguchi edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:30

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

44 / 108

Sig Strikes

23 / 89

40.7%

Sig Str %

27.3%

59 / 123

Total Strikes

29 / 95

1 / 2

TDs

0 / 1

50%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

1:58

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Louis Gaudinot	8 / 29	10 / 31	0 / 1	0
1	Kyoji Horiguchi	11 / 27	13 / 29	0 / 0	0
2	Louis Gaudinot	8 / 21	9 / 22	0 / 0	1
2	Kyoji Horiguchi	17 / 35	29 / 47	1 / 2	0
3	Louis Gaudinot	7 / 39	10 / 42	0 / 0	1
3	Kyoji Horiguchi	16 / 46	17 / 47	0 / 0	0

Kyoji Horiguchi

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach63.0"

Fights11

Louis Gaudinot

StanceOrthodox

Height63.0"

Reach63.0"

Fights4