Flyweight

3 Rounds

Kyoji Horiguchi won · U-DEC R3

Elo1514

Elo1355

Kyoji HoriguchivsDarrell MontagueUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva · Saturday, May 10, 2014Cincinnati, Ohio, USA

Official fight result

Kyoji Horiguchi won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Kyoji Horiguchi wins(68.5%)

Actual result: Kyoji Horiguchi wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Kyoji Horiguchi at -210 American odds

+$48 profit

$148 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Kyoji Horiguchi has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Kyoji Horiguchi has 28pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Darrell Montague (53.5%).
Darrell Montague has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Kyoji Horiguchi

Red Corner

Darrell Montague

Blue Corner

-210

(68%)

Vegas Odds

+190

(34%)

1514

Elo

1355

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'4"

Height

5'6"

160.02 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Kyoji Horiguchi

oldest →

vs Neil Seery · May 16

vs Ali Bagautinov · Nov 16

SUBvs Tagir Ulanbekov · Nov 25

vs Amir Albazi · Feb 26

KOvs Manel Kape · Jun 26

latest

Darrell MontagueL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs John Dodson · Oct 13

KOvs Willie Gates · Jul 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Kyoji HoriguchiMetricDarrell Montague

3.77

Strikes / min

1.92

2.13

Strikes absorbed / min

5.38

63%

Strike defense

52%

1.61

TDs / 15 min

0.72

61%

Takedown defense

33%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

1.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.64Δ 5.10 — meaningful gap-3.46

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Kyoji HoriguchiDarrell Montague

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Kyoji Horiguchi(10 fights)Darrell Montague(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +159.4|Blue -159.4

Recent Form

Red +1.9|Blue -1.9

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Kyoji HoriguchiTargetDarrell Montague

By target zone

42% acc · 78%

Head

20% acc · 62%

55% acc · 18%

Body

28% acc · 19%

67% acc · 3%

Leg

71% acc · 19%

By position

36% acc · 58%

Distance

25% acc · 96%

75% acc · 5%

Clinch

33% acc · 4%

63% acc · 37%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Kyoji Horiguchi rounds

even

Darrell Montague rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:00

5Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:38Control

Round 2Kyoji Horiguchi edged it

Sig. strikes31

Takedowns1

Control1:30

Knockdowns1

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:19Control

0Knockdowns

Round 3Kyoji Horiguchi edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns1

Control1:17

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

65 / 147

Sig Strikes

26 / 105

42.7%

Sig Str %

25%

82 / 169

Total Strikes

35 / 114

2 / 2

TDs

1 / 2

100%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

2:47

Ctrl Time

0:57

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Darrell Montague	5 / 23	8 / 26	1 / 1	0
1	Kyoji Horiguchi	10 / 26	10 / 26	0 / 0	0
2	Darrell Montague	13 / 34	18 / 39	0 / 1	2
2	Kyoji Horiguchi	31 / 63	46 / 83	1 / 1	0
3	Darrell Montague	8 / 48	9 / 49	0 / 0	0
3	Kyoji Horiguchi	24 / 58	26 / 60	1 / 1	0

Kyoji Horiguchi

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach63.0"

Fights11

Darrell Montague

StanceSouthpaw

Height66.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights3