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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Kyoji Horiguchi won · U-DEC R3

Elo1514

Elo1491

Kyoji HoriguchivsAli BagautinovUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Mousasi vs. Hall 2 · Saturday, November 19, 2016Belfast, Northern Ireland, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Kyoji Horiguchi won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupKyoji Horiguchi: Elusive strikervsAli Bagautinov: Wrestler

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

Model Prediction: Kyoji Horiguchi wins(56.0%)

Actual result: Kyoji Horiguchi wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Kyoji Horiguchi at -200 American odds

+$50 profit

$150 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Kyoji Horiguchi has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Kyoji Horiguchi

Red Corner

Ali Bagautinov

Blue Corner

-200

(67%)

Vegas Odds

+170

(37%)

1514

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'4"

Height

5'4"

160.02 cm

Reach

165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Kyoji Horiguchi

oldest →

vs Chico Camus · Sep 15

vs Neil Seery · May 16

SUBvs Tagir Ulanbekov · Nov 25

vs Amir Albazi · Feb 26

KOvs Manel Kape · Jun 26

latest

Ali Bagautinov

oldest →

vs Tim Elliott · Nov 13

vs John Lineker · Feb 14

vs Demetrious Johnson · Jun 14

vs Joseph Benavidez · Oct 15

vs Geane Herrera · Jun 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Kyoji HoriguchiMetricAli Bagautinov

3.77

Strikes / min

2.85

2.13

Strikes absorbed / min

3.09

63%

Strike defense

52%

1.61

TDs / 15 min

2.51

61%

Takedown defense

65%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.64Δ 1.88 — meaningful gap-0.24

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Kyoji HoriguchiAli Bagautinov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Kyoji Horiguchi(10 fights)Ali Bagautinov(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +23.7|Blue -23.7

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red +41.0|Blue -41.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Kyoji HoriguchiTargetAli Bagautinov

By target zone

58% acc · 85%

Head

19% acc · 25%

57% acc · 7%

Body

68% acc · 47%

100% acc · 7%

Leg

83% acc · 28%

By position

45% acc · 47%

Distance

32% acc · 58%

84% acc · 49%

Clinch

80% acc · 33%

100% acc · 4%

Ground

100% acc · 8%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Kyoji Horiguchi rounds

even

Ali Bagautinov rounds

Round 1Ali Bagautinov edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns1

Control2:05

13Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

0:54Control

Round 2Kyoji Horiguchi edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns2

Control1:58

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:19Control

Round 3Kyoji Horiguchi edged it

Sig. strikes34

Takedowns1

Control0:29

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:37Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

55 / 92

Sig Strikes

36 / 84

57.3%

Sig Str %

47.3%

115 / 161

Total Strikes

48 / 97

4 / 9

TDs

2 / 6

58.3%

TD %

33.3%

Sub Att

Rev

4:32

Ctrl Time

2:50

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Ali Bagautinov	13 / 18	15 / 20	2 / 2
1	Kyoji Horiguchi	9 / 15	29 / 37	1 / 4
2	Ali Bagautinov	11 / 27	16 / 32	0 / 1
2	Kyoji Horiguchi	12 / 27	39 / 56	2 / 4
3	Ali Bagautinov	12 / 39	17 / 45	0 / 3
3	Kyoji Horiguchi	34 / 50	47 / 68	1 / 1

Kyoji Horiguchi

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach63.0"

Fights11

Ali Bagautinov

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights7