← All fights/Event page

Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Raulian Paiva won · M-DEC R3

Elo1476

Elo1429

Kyler PhillipsvsRaulian PaivaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Dillashaw · Saturday, July 24, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Raulian Paiva won

M-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupKyler Phillips: WrestlervsRaulian Paiva: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Kyler Phillips wins(78.9%)

Actual result: Raulian Paiva wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Kyler Phillips at -320 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Kyler Phillips enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Kyler Phillips has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Kyler Phillips

Red Corner

Raulian Paiva

Blue Corner

-320

(76%)

Vegas Odds

+250

(29%)

1476

Elo

1429

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'8"

182.88 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Kyler PhillipsL3 streak

oldest →

vs Raoni Barcelos · Aug 23

vs Pedro Munhoz · Mar 24

vs Rob Font · Oct 24

vs Vinicius Oliveira · Jul 25

DECvs Charles Jourdain · Apr 26

latest

Raulian PaivaL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Rogerio Bontorin · Aug 19

KOvs Mark De La Rosa · Feb 20

DECvs Zhalgas Zhamagulov · Jul 20

KOvs Sean O'Malley · Dec 21

vs Sergey Morozov · Jun 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Kyler PhillipsMetricRaulian Paiva

4.75

Strikes / min

4.14

3.83

Strikes absorbed / min

5.01

58%

Strike defense

48%

2.82

TDs / 15 min

0.65

75%

Takedown defense

77%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.92Δ 1.79 — meaningful gap-0.87

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Kyler PhillipsRaulian Paiva

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Kyler Phillips(10 fights)Raulian Paiva(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +47.0|Blue -47.0

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -238.0|Blue +238.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Kyler PhillipsTargetRaulian Paiva

By target zone

54% acc · 84%

Head

39% acc · 73%

64% acc · 9%

Body

67% acc · 27%

83% acc · 7%

Leg

By position

45% acc · 58%

Distance

40% acc · 80%

89% acc · 11%

Clinch

70% acc · 14%

82% acc · 31%

Ground

60% acc · 6%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Kyler Phillips rounds

even

Raulian Paiva rounds

Round 1Kyler Phillips edged it

Sig. strikes45

Takedowns1

Control1:01

Knockdowns1

13Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:23Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns2

Control1:37

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:25Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns1

Control0:24

15Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:44Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

74 / 132

Sig Strikes

51 / 117

52.3%

Sig Str %

42.3%

95 / 155

Total Strikes

72 / 147

4 / 9

TDs

2 / 6

47%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

3:02

Ctrl Time

3:32

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Raulian Paiva	13 / 32	19 / 38	1 / 2
1	Kyler Phillips	45 / 70	61 / 86	1 / 2
2	Raulian Paiva	23 / 47	23 / 47	0 / 3
2	Kyler Phillips	13 / 28	15 / 32	2 / 3
3	Raulian Paiva	15 / 38	30 / 62	1 / 1
3	Kyler Phillips	16 / 34	19 / 37	1 / 4

Kyler Phillips

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights9

Raulian Paiva

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights7