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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Chance Rencountre won · SUB R1

Elo1375

Elo1492

Kyle StewartvsChance RencountreUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dillashaw · Saturday, January 19, 2019Brooklyn, New York, USA

Official fight result

Chance Rencountre won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:25

Model Prediction: Chance Rencountre wins(64.5%)

Actual result: Chance Rencountre wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Chance Rencountre at +145 American odds

+$145 profit

$245 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Chance Rencountre threatens submissions; Kyle Stewart has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Kyle Stewart has 44pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Chance Rencountre (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Kyle Stewart

Red Corner

Chance Rencountre

Blue Corner

-165

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+145

(41%)

1375

Elo

1492

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'0"

Height

6'2"

193.04 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Kyle Stewart

oldest →

vs Erik Koch · Jul 19

latest

Chance Rencountre

oldest →

vs Belal Muhammad · Jun 18

vs Ismail Naurdiev · Jul 19

KOvs Lyman Good · Nov 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Kyle StewartMetricChance Rencountre

1.41

Strikes / min

1.10

2.42

Strikes absorbed / min

3.62

43%

Strike defense

49%

1.32

TDs / 15 min

1.35

60%

Takedown defense

16%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.01Δ 1.51 — meaningful gap-2.52

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Kyle StewartChance Rencountre

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Kyle Stewart(2 fights)Chance Rencountre(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -117.2|Blue +117.2

Recent Form

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Striker Score

Red +50.0|Blue -50.0

Grappler Score

Red +50.0|Blue -50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Kyle StewartTargetChance Rencountre

By target zone

0% acc

Head

63% acc · 83%

100% acc · 100%

Body

Leg

100% acc · 17%

By position

18% acc · 100%

Distance

57% acc · 67%

Clinch

Ground

100% acc · 33%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Kyle Stewart rounds

even

Chance Rencountre rounds

Round 1Chance Rencountre edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:00

6Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:59Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

2 / 11

Sig Strikes

6 / 9

18%

Sig Str %

66%

2 / 11

Total Strikes

13 / 22

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 3

—

TD %

66%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

1:59

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Chance Rencountre	6 / 9	13 / 22	2 / 3	1
1	Kyle Stewart	2 / 11	2 / 11	0 / 0	0

Kyle Stewart

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights2

Chance Rencountre

StanceSouthpaw

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights4