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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Drew Dober won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1459

Elo1514

Kyle PrepolecvsDrew DoberUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. Allen · Saturday, October 18, 2025Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

Official fight result

Drew Dober won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 1:16

Style matchupKyle Prepolec: StrikervsDrew Dober: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Drew Dober wins(60.2%)

Actual result: Drew Dober wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Drew Dober at -330 American odds

+$30 profit

$130 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Kyle Prepolec enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Kyle Prepolec

Red Corner

Drew Dober

Blue Corner

+265

(27%)

Vegas Odds

-330

(77%)

1459

Elo

1514

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

5'10"

Height

5'8"

177.8 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Kyle PrepolecL3 streak

oldest →

vs Nordine Taleb · May 19

vs Austin Hubbard · Sep 19

SUBvs Benoit Saint Denis · May 25

latest

Drew Dober

oldest →

KOvs Ricky Glenn · Oct 23

vs Renato Moicano · Feb 24

KOvs Jean Silva · Jul 24

KOvs Manuel Torres · Mar 25

KOvs Michael Johnson · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Kyle PrepolecMetricDrew Dober

3.25

Strikes / min

4.48

5.69

Strikes absorbed / min

4.33

48%

Strike defense

53%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

0.61

45%

Takedown defense

58%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.44Δ 2.59 — meaningful gap+0.15

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Kyle PrepolecDrew Dober

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Kyle Prepolec(4 fights)Drew Dober(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -54.7|Blue +54.7

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -42.0|Blue +42.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Kyle PrepolecTargetDrew Dober

By target zone

26% acc · 71%

Head

39% acc · 55%

54% acc · 14%

Body

82% acc · 22%

67% acc · 16%

Leg

86% acc · 23%

By position

31% acc · 100%

Distance

50% acc · 93%

Clinch

75% acc · 7%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Kyle Prepolec rounds

even

Drew Dober rounds

Round 1Drew Dober edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:00

28Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Drew Dober edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control0:00

35Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Drew Dober edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:02

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

51 / 164

Sig Strikes

83 / 161

32%

Sig Str %

50.7%

51 / 164

Total Strikes

85 / 163

0 / 3

TDs

0 / 1

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:02

Ctrl Time

0:04

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Drew Dober	28 / 58	28 / 58	0 / 0
1	Kyle Prepolec	17 / 66	17 / 66	0 / 0
2	Drew Dober	35 / 58	36 / 59	0 / 1
2	Kyle Prepolec	27 / 80	27 / 80	0 / 1
3	Drew Dober	20 / 45	21 / 46	0 / 0
3	Kyle Prepolec	7 / 18	7 / 18	0 / 2

Kyle Prepolec

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights4

Drew Dober

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights26