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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Austin Hubbard won · U-DEC R3

Elo1459

Elo1478

Kyle PrepolecvsAustin HubbardUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gaethje · Saturday, September 14, 2019Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

Official fight result

Austin Hubbard won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupKyle Prepolec: StrikervsAustin Hubbard: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has more paths to victory. The striker needs to be sharp early.

Model Prediction: Austin Hubbard wins(60.8%)

Actual result: Austin Hubbard wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Austin Hubbard at -140 American odds

+$71 profit

$171 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Kyle Prepolec enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Austin Hubbard enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Austin Hubbard has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Kyle Prepolec (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Kyle Prepolec

Red Corner

Austin Hubbard

Blue Corner

+120

(45%)

Vegas Odds

-140

(58%)

1459

Elo

1478

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'10"

177.8 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Kyle PrepolecL3 streak

oldest →

vs Nordine Taleb · May 19

SUBvs Benoit Saint Denis · May 25

KOvs Drew Dober · Oct 25

latest

Austin HubbardL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Kurt Holobaugh · Aug 23

vs Michal Figlak · Apr 24

vs Alexander Hernandez · Oct 24

vs MarQuel Mederos · Mar 25

vs Rongzhu · Aug 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Kyle PrepolecMetricAustin Hubbard

3.25

Strikes / min

3.97

5.69

Strikes absorbed / min

4.10

48%

Strike defense

55%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

1.63

45%

Takedown defense

68%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.44Δ 2.31 — meaningful gap-0.13

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Kyle PrepolecAustin Hubbard

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Kyle Prepolec(4 fights)Austin Hubbard(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -18.6|Blue +18.6

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +14.0|Blue -14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Kyle PrepolecTargetAustin Hubbard

By target zone

26% acc · 52%

Head

29% acc · 39%

47% acc · 20%

Body

54% acc · 27%

80% acc · 27%

Leg

94% acc · 33%

By position

35% acc · 95%

Distance

41% acc · 80%

100% acc · 5%

Clinch

Ground

83% acc · 20%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Kyle Prepolec rounds

even

Austin Hubbard rounds

Round 1Kyle Prepolec edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns0

Control0:00

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Austin Hubbard edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:00

24Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:30Control

Round 3Austin Hubbard edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:47

10Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:12Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

44 / 122

Sig Strikes

51 / 112

33%

Sig Str %

51.7%

46 / 124

Total Strikes

136 / 239

0 / 1

TDs

3 / 5

TD %

66.5%

Sub Att

Rev

0:47

Ctrl Time

5:42

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Austin Hubbard	17 / 57	17 / 57	0 / 0
1	Kyle Prepolec	28 / 70	28 / 70	0 / 0
2	Austin Hubbard	24 / 40	51 / 99	2 / 2
2	Kyle Prepolec	12 / 38	13 / 39	0 / 0
3	Austin Hubbard	10 / 15	68 / 83	1 / 3
3	Kyle Prepolec	4 / 14	5 / 15	0 / 1

Kyle Prepolec

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights4

Austin Hubbard

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights12