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Welterweight
3 Rounds
Kyle Noke won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1359
Kyle Noke
Elo1387

Kyle NokevsPeter SobottaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 193: Rousey vs Holm · Saturday, November 14, 2015Melbourne, Victoria, Australia

Official fight result

Kyle Noke won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:01

Model Prediction: Kyle Noke wins(74.6%)

Actual result: Kyle Noke wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Kyle Noke at +205 American odds

+$205 profit

$305 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Kyle Noke enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Kyle Noke
Red Corner
VS
Peter Sobotta
Blue Corner
+205
(33%)
Vegas Odds
-245
(71%)
1359
Elo
1387
46
Age
39
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
6'1"
Height
6'0"
193.04 cm
Reach
190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Kyle NokeL3 streak
oldest →
L
vs Patrick Cote · Apr 14
W
vs Jonavin Webb · May 15
L
vs Alex Morono · Jan 16
L
SUBvs Keita Nakamura · Jul 16
L
vs Omari Akhmedov · Nov 16
latest
Peter SobottaL2 streak
oldest →
W
SUBvs Steve Kennedy · Jun 15
W
vs Nicolas Dalby · Sep 16
W
KOvs Ben Saunders · May 17
L
KOvs Leon Edwards · Mar 18
L
vs Alex Oliveira · Jul 20
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Kyle NokeMetricPeter Sobotta
3.23
Strikes / min
2.14
2.09
Strikes absorbed / min
2.90
64%
Strike defense
58%
1.53
TDs / 15 min
1.53
66%
Takedown defense
77%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
0.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.14Δ 1.90 — meaningful gap-0.76

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1530 vs 1503Strikes26.9 vs 24.0Takedowns1.0 vs 1.6Sub Atts0.50 vs 0.60Form0.4 vs 1.0
Kyle NokePeter Sobotta

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Kyle Noke(10 fights)Peter Sobotta(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -28.2|Blue +28.2
Recent Form
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Striker Score
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Grappler Score
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red +42.0|Blue -42.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Kyle NokeTargetPeter Sobotta

By target zone

13
43% acc · 57%
Head
2
40% acc · 100%
2
50% acc · 9%
Body
0
0% acc
8
89% acc · 35%
Leg
0

By position

11
52% acc · 48%
Distance
2
33% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
12
55% acc · 52%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Kyle Noke rounds
0
even
0
Peter Sobotta rounds
Round 1Kyle Noke edged it
Sig. strikes23
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns1
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:14Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
23 / 43
Sig Strikes
2 / 6
53%
Sig Str %
33%
24 / 44
Total Strikes
2 / 6
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:14

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Peter Sobotta2 / 62 / 60 / 00
1Kyle Noke23 / 4324 / 440 / 00

Kyle Noke

StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights12

Peter Sobotta

StanceSouthpaw
Height72.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights9