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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Keita Nakamura won · SUB R2

Elo1359

Elo1492

Kyle NokevsKeita NakamuraUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. Lineker · Wednesday, July 13, 2016Sioux Falls, South Dakota, USA

Official fight result

Keita Nakamura won

SUB · Round 2 · 4:59

Model Prediction: Kyle Noke wins(55.3%)

Actual result: Keita Nakamura wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Kyle Noke at -155 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Keita Nakamura threatens submissions; Kyle Noke has lost 33% of fights by sub.

Tale of the Tape

Kyle Noke

Red Corner

Keita Nakamura

Blue Corner

-155

(61%)

Vegas Odds

+135

(43%)

1359

Elo

1492

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

6'1"

Height

5'11"

193.04 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Kyle NokeL2 streak

oldest →

vs Patrick Cote · Apr 14

vs Jonavin Webb · May 15

KOvs Peter Sobotta · Nov 15

vs Alex Morono · Jan 16

vs Omari Akhmedov · Nov 16

latest

Keita Nakamura

oldest →

vs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos · Oct 16

vs Alex Morono · Sep 17

vs Anthony Rocco Martin · Apr 18

vs Salim Touahri · Dec 18

vs Sultan Aliev · Apr 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Kyle NokeMetricKeita Nakamura

3.23

Strikes / min

2.23

2.09

Strikes absorbed / min

3.20

64%

Strike defense

58%

1.53

TDs / 15 min

1.65

66%

Takedown defense

63%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.14Δ 2.11 — meaningful gap-0.97

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Kyle NokeKeita Nakamura

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Kyle Noke(10 fights)Keita Nakamura(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -133.0|Blue +133.0

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +56.0|Blue -56.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Kyle NokeTargetKeita Nakamura

By target zone

40% acc · 43%

Head

33% acc · 80%

73% acc · 18%

Body

63% acc · 12%

89% acc · 39%

Leg

50% acc · 7%

By position

55% acc · 93%

Distance

33% acc · 76%

100% acc · 5%

Clinch

100% acc · 2%

Ground

50% acc · 22%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Kyle Noke rounds

even

Keita Nakamura rounds

Round 1Kyle Noke edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns1

Control0:04

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Keita Nakamura edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns1

Control0:29

Knockdowns0

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:31Control

1Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

44 / 77

Sig Strikes

41 / 113

58%

Sig Str %

36%

48 / 81

Total Strikes

45 / 117

2 / 2

TDs

0 / 2

100%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:33

Ctrl Time

0:31

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Keita Nakamura	15 / 57	15 / 57	0 / 0	0
1	Kyle Noke	26 / 48	26 / 48	1 / 1	0
2	Keita Nakamura	26 / 56	30 / 60	0 / 2	1
2	Kyle Noke	18 / 29	22 / 33	1 / 1	0

Kyle Noke

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights12

Keita Nakamura

StanceSouthpaw

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights8