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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Kyle Noke won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1359

Elo1354

Kyle NokevsCharlie BrennemanUFC Prediction Result

UFC 152: Jones vs Belfort · Saturday, September 22, 2012Toronto, Ontario, Canada

Official fight result

Kyle Noke won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:45

Style matchupKyle Noke: Well-roundedvsCharlie Brenneman: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Kyle Noke wins(59.6%)

Actual result: Kyle Noke wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Kyle Noke at +195 American odds

+$195 profit

$295 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Kyle Noke enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Charlie Brenneman enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Kyle Noke is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Charlie Brenneman has lost 57% of fights by KO.
Kyle Noke has 18pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Kyle Noke (53.5%).
Kyle Noke has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Kyle Noke

Red Corner

Charlie Brenneman

Blue Corner

+195

(34%)

Vegas Odds

-215

(68%)

1359

Elo

1354

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

5'10"

193.04 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Kyle NokeL3 streak

oldest →

vs Jonavin Webb · May 15

KOvs Peter Sobotta · Nov 15

vs Alex Morono · Jan 16

SUBvs Keita Nakamura · Jul 16

vs Omari Akhmedov · Nov 16

latest

Charlie BrennemanL4 streak

oldest →

vs Daniel Roberts · Jan 12

SUBvs Erick Silva · Jun 12

SUBvs Beneil Dariush · Jan 14

KOvs Danny Castillo · Apr 14

SUBvs Leandro Silva · Nov 14

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Kyle NokeMetricCharlie Brenneman

3.23

Strikes / min

1.52

2.09

Strikes absorbed / min

1.55

64%

Strike defense

46%

1.53

TDs / 15 min

4.23

66%

Takedown defense

72%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.14Δ 1.17 — meaningful gap-0.03

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Kyle NokeCharlie Brenneman

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Kyle Noke(10 fights)Charlie Brenneman(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +4.8|Blue -4.8

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red +98.0|Blue -98.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Kyle NokeTargetCharlie Brenneman

By target zone

47% acc · 100%

Head

0% acc

Body

Leg

By position

33% acc · 43%

Distance

0% acc

Clinch

67% acc · 57%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Kyle Noke rounds

even

Charlie Brenneman rounds

Round 1Kyle Noke edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:02

Knockdowns1

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

7 / 15

Sig Strikes

0 / 2

46%

Sig Str %

7 / 15

Total Strikes

0 / 2

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:02

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Charlie Brenneman	0 / 2	0 / 2	0 / 0	0
1	Kyle Noke	7 / 15	7 / 15	0 / 0	0

Kyle Noke

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights12

Charlie Brenneman

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights11