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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Andrew Craig won · U-DEC R3

Elo1359

Elo1355

Kyle NokevsAndrew CraigUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FX: Alves vs Kampmann · Friday, March 2, 2012Sydney, New South Wales, Australia

Official fight result

Andrew Craig won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Kyle Noke wins(71.3%)

Actual result: Andrew Craig wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Kyle Noke at -255 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Kyle Noke enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Andrew Craig enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Kyle Noke has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Kyle Noke (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Kyle Noke

Red Corner

Andrew Craig

Blue Corner

-255

(72%)

Vegas Odds

+235

(30%)

1359

Elo

1355

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'1"

193.04 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Kyle NokeL3 streak

oldest →

vs Jonavin Webb · May 15

KOvs Peter Sobotta · Nov 15

vs Alex Morono · Jan 16

SUBvs Keita Nakamura · Jul 16

vs Omari Akhmedov · Nov 16

latest

Andrew CraigL3 streak

oldest →

vs Ronny Markes · Jan 13

vs Chris Leben · Jul 13

SUBvs Luke Barnatt · Oct 13

vs Cezar Ferreira · Jun 14

KOvs Lyman Good · Jul 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Kyle NokeMetricAndrew Craig

3.23

Strikes / min

2.39

2.09

Strikes absorbed / min

3.01

64%

Strike defense

50%

1.53

TDs / 15 min

0.53

66%

Takedown defense

72%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.14Δ 1.76 — meaningful gap-0.62

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Kyle NokeAndrew Craig

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Kyle Noke(10 fights)Andrew Craig(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +3.6|Blue -3.6

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red -48.1|Blue +48.1

Grappler Score

Red -49.7|Blue +49.7

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Kyle NokeTargetAndrew Craig

By target zone

50% acc · 56%

Head

44% acc · 83%

60% acc · 25%

Body

57% acc · 11%

88% acc · 19%

Leg

50% acc · 6%

By position

52% acc · 81%

Distance

36% acc · 67%

100% acc · 3%

Clinch

100% acc · 8%

100% acc · 17%

Ground

90% acc · 25%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Kyle Noke rounds

even

Andrew Craig rounds

Round 1Kyle Noke edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns2

Control2:44

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Andrew Craig edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:09

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:29Control

Round 3Andrew Craig edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns1

Control0:36

14Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:28Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

36 / 63

Sig Strikes

36 / 79

55.3%

Sig Str %

41.3%

40 / 67

Total Strikes

104 / 158

3 / 7

TDs

1 / 2

41.7%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

3:29

Ctrl Time

3:57

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Andrew Craig	3 / 19	14 / 31	0 / 0	0
1	Kyle Noke	17 / 27	18 / 28	2 / 2	1
2	Andrew Craig	19 / 32	47 / 63	0 / 0	0
2	Kyle Noke	11 / 19	14 / 22	0 / 1	0
3	Andrew Craig	14 / 28	43 / 64	1 / 2	0
3	Kyle Noke	8 / 17	8 / 17	1 / 4	0

Kyle Noke

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights12

Andrew Craig

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights7