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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Alex Morono won · S-DEC R3

Elo1359

Elo1478

Kyle NokevsAlex MoronoUFC Prediction Result

UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit · Saturday, January 2, 2016Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Alex Morono won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupKyle Noke: Well-roundedvsAlex Morono: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Kyle Noke wins(72.6%)

Actual result: Alex Morono wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Kyle Noke at -370 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alex Morono enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Kyle Noke has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Kyle Noke (53.5%).
Kyle Noke has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Kyle Noke

Red Corner

Alex Morono

Blue Corner

-370

(79%)

Vegas Odds

+310

(24%)

1359

Elo

1478

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

5'11"

193.04 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Kyle NokeL2 streak

oldest →

vs Patrick Cote · Apr 14

vs Jonavin Webb · May 15

KOvs Peter Sobotta · Nov 15

SUBvs Keita Nakamura · Jul 16

vs Omari Akhmedov · Nov 16

latest

Alex MoronoL4 streak

oldest →

vs Court McGee · Apr 24

vs Niko Price · Jun 24

vs Daniel Rodriguez · Oct 24

KOvs Carlos Leal · Mar 25

vs Daniil Donchenko · Feb 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Kyle NokeMetricAlex Morono

3.23

Strikes / min

4.90

2.09

Strikes absorbed / min

4.88

64%

Strike defense

55%

1.53

TDs / 15 min

0.32

66%

Takedown defense

47%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.14Δ 1.12 — meaningful gap+0.02

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Kyle NokeAlex Morono

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Kyle Noke(10 fights)Alex Morono(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -119.0|Blue +119.0

Recent Form

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Striker Score

Red -48.2|Blue +48.2

Grappler Score

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Kyle NokeTargetAlex Morono

By target zone

31% acc · 41%

Head

31% acc · 79%

59% acc · 34%

Body

67% acc · 14%

68% acc · 25%

Leg

50% acc · 7%

By position

42% acc · 75%

Distance

32% acc · 81%

27% acc · 5%

Clinch

36% acc · 9%

71% acc · 20%

Ground

80% acc · 9%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Kyle Noke rounds

even

Alex Morono rounds

Round 1Kyle Noke edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:00

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:46Control

Round 2Kyle Noke edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control2:14

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:19Control

Round 3Kyle Noke edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns1

Control0:54

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

59 / 134

Sig Strikes

43 / 125

43.3%

Sig Str %

34.3%

79 / 155

Total Strikes

81 / 166

1 / 3

TDs

0 / 0

25%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

3:08

Ctrl Time

1:05

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Alex Morono	11 / 41	16 / 46	0 / 0	0
1	Kyle Noke	20 / 48	20 / 48	0 / 0	0
2	Alex Morono	16 / 36	31 / 51	0 / 0	0
2	Kyle Noke	15 / 39	25 / 50	0 / 1	0
3	Alex Morono	16 / 48	34 / 69	0 / 0	1
3	Kyle Noke	24 / 47	34 / 57	1 / 2	0

Kyle Noke

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights12

Alex Morono

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights23