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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Matt Sayles won · SUB R3

Elo1496

Elo1414

Kyle NelsonvsMatt SaylesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. Cowboy · Saturday, May 4, 2019Ottawa, Ontario, Canada

Official fight result

Matt Sayles won

SUB · Round 3 · 3:16

Style matchupKyle Nelson: Well-roundedvsMatt Sayles: Elusive striker

The well-rounded fighter has more dimensions. The elusive striker needs to win the striking exchanges clearly.

Model Prediction: Matt Sayles wins(53.6%)

Actual result: Matt Sayles wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Matt Sayles at -190 American odds

+$53 profit

$153 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Matt Sayles enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Matt Sayles has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Kyle Nelson (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Kyle Nelson

Red Corner

Matt Sayles

Blue Corner

+165

(38%)

Vegas Odds

-190

(66%)

1496

Elo

1414

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'7"

180.34 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Kyle Nelson

oldest →

vs Fernando Padilla · Sep 23

KOvs Bill Algeo · Mar 24

KOvs Steve Garcia · Sep 24

vs Matt Frevola · Oct 25

KOvs Terrance McKinney · Mar 26

latest

Matt SaylesL3 streak

oldest →

vs Sheymon Moraes · Aug 18

SUBvs Bryce Mitchell · Dec 19

SUBvs Jordan Leavitt · Dec 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Kyle NelsonMetricMatt Sayles

3.60

Strikes / min

4.83

4.58

Strikes absorbed / min

2.81

53%

Strike defense

61%

1.18

TDs / 15 min

0.36

66%

Takedown defense

81%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.98Δ 3.00 — meaningful gap+2.02

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Kyle NelsonMatt Sayles

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Kyle Nelson(10 fights)Matt Sayles(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +82.2|Blue -82.2

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -126.0|Blue +126.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Kyle NelsonTargetMatt Sayles

By target zone

22% acc · 69%

Head

40% acc · 60%

73% acc · 31%

Body

83% acc · 20%

Leg

94% acc · 20%

By position

28% acc · 92%

Distance

46% acc · 64%

29% acc · 8%

Clinch

60% acc · 4%

Ground

65% acc · 32%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Kyle Nelson rounds

even

Matt Sayles rounds

Round 1Matt Sayles edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:00

54Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:08Control

Round 2Kyle Nelson edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns2

Control3:26

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:13Control

Round 3Matt Sayles edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:21

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:26Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

26 / 93

Sig Strikes

75 / 147

27.7%

Sig Str %

46.7%

32 / 103

Total Strikes

106 / 181

2 / 10

TDs

0 / 0

25%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

3:47

Ctrl Time

2:47

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Matt Sayles	54 / 99	79 / 127	0 / 0	0
1	Kyle Nelson	14 / 48	14 / 48	0 / 0	2
2	Matt Sayles	6 / 14	7 / 15	0 / 0	0
2	Kyle Nelson	5 / 17	11 / 27	2 / 4	2
3	Matt Sayles	15 / 34	20 / 39	0 / 0	1
3	Kyle Nelson	7 / 28	7 / 28	0 / 6	0

Kyle Nelson

StanceSwitch

Height71.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights11

Matt Sayles

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights4