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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Kyle Nelson won · U-DEC R3

Elo1496

Elo1483

Kyle NelsonvsMatt FrevolaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. Allen · Saturday, October 18, 2025Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

Official fight result

Kyle Nelson won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupKyle Nelson: Well-roundedvsMatt Frevola: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Matt Frevola wins(55.6%)

Actual result: Kyle Nelson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Matt Frevola at +112 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Matt Frevola is a KO finisher (60% of wins). Kyle Nelson has lost 67% of fights by KO.
Kyle Nelson has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Kyle Nelson (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Kyle Nelson

Red Corner

Matt Frevola

Blue Corner

-132

(57%)

Vegas Odds

+112

(47%)

1496

Elo

1483

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'9"

180.34 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Kyle NelsonL2 streak

oldest →

vs Blake Bilder · Jun 23

vs Fernando Padilla · Sep 23

KOvs Bill Algeo · Mar 24

KOvs Steve Garcia · Sep 24

KOvs Terrance McKinney · Mar 26

latest

Matt FrevolaL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Genaro Valdez · Jan 22

KOvs Ottman Azaitar · Nov 22

KOvs Drew Dober · May 23

KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Nov 23

KOvs Fares Ziam · Sep 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Kyle NelsonMetricMatt Frevola

3.60

Strikes / min

3.30

4.58

Strikes absorbed / min

3.76

53%

Strike defense

56%

1.18

TDs / 15 min

2.34

66%

Takedown defense

40%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.98evenly matched on net striking-0.46

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Kyle NelsonMatt Frevola

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Kyle Nelson(10 fights)Matt Frevola(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +12.9|Blue -12.9

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +21.0|Blue -21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Kyle NelsonTargetMatt Frevola

By target zone

40% acc · 65%

Head

22% acc · 53%

61% acc · 22%

Body

50% acc · 23%

89% acc · 13%

Leg

77% acc · 23%

By position

43% acc · 73%

Distance

30% acc · 91%

50% acc · 11%

Clinch

57% acc · 9%

67% acc · 16%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Kyle Nelson rounds

even

Matt Frevola rounds

Round 1Kyle Nelson edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:28

Knockdowns1

15Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:01Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Kyle Nelson edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns0

Control0:00

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:20Control

Round 3Kyle Nelson edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns2

Control2:43

7Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:37Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

63 / 135

Sig Strikes

43 / 136

46%

Sig Str %

36.7%

92 / 170

Total Strikes

60 / 155

2 / 5

TDs

2 / 3

25%

TD %

66.7%

Sub Att

Rev

3:11

Ctrl Time

1:58

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Matt Frevola	15 / 54	19 / 60	1 / 1
1	Kyle Nelson	23 / 55	30 / 64	0 / 0
2	Matt Frevola	21 / 69	22 / 70	0 / 1
2	Kyle Nelson	29 / 57	32 / 60	0 / 1
3	Matt Frevola	7 / 13	19 / 25	1 / 1
3	Kyle Nelson	11 / 23	30 / 46	2 / 4

Kyle Nelson

StanceSwitch

Height71.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights11

Matt Frevola

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights10