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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Kyle Nelson won · U-DEC R3

Elo1496

Elo1495

Kyle NelsonvsBlake BilderUFC Prediction Result

UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana · Saturday, June 10, 2023Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

Official fight result

Kyle Nelson won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupKyle Nelson: Well-roundedvsBlake Bilder: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Blake Bilder wins(63.0%)

Actual result: Kyle Nelson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Blake Bilder at -275 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Kyle Nelson

Red Corner

Blake Bilder

Blue Corner

+225

(31%)

Vegas Odds

-275

(73%)

1496

Elo

1495

Age

Switch

Stance

Switch

5'11"

Height

5'8"

180.34 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Kyle Nelson

oldest →

vs Fernando Padilla · Sep 23

KOvs Bill Algeo · Mar 24

KOvs Steve Garcia · Sep 24

vs Matt Frevola · Oct 25

KOvs Terrance McKinney · Mar 26

latest

Blake Bilder

oldest →

vs Shane Young · Feb 23

vs JeongYeong Lee · Feb 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Kyle NelsonMetricBlake Bilder

3.60

Strikes / min

3.81

4.58

Strikes absorbed / min

4.15

53%

Strike defense

53%

1.18

TDs / 15 min

0.31

66%

Takedown defense

71%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.98evenly matched on net striking-0.34

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Kyle NelsonBlake Bilder

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Kyle Nelson(10 fights)Blake Bilder(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +1.2|Blue -1.2

Recent Form

Red -1.9|Blue +1.9

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +203.0|Blue -203.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Kyle NelsonTargetBlake Bilder

By target zone

32% acc · 41%

Head

27% acc · 58%

65% acc · 34%

Body

50% acc · 4%

79% acc · 25%

Leg

85% acc · 38%

By position

46% acc · 97%

Distance

38% acc · 100%

100% acc · 3%

Clinch

0% acc

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Kyle Nelson rounds

even

Blake Bilder rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control1:18

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:22Control

Round 2Kyle Nelson edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:00

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:14Control

Round 3Kyle Nelson edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control1:03

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:09Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

59 / 126

Sig Strikes

45 / 120

46.7%

Sig Str %

37%

83 / 150

Total Strikes

84 / 159

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 3

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

2:21

Ctrl Time

2:45

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Blake Bilder	22 / 51	42 / 71	0 / 1
1	Kyle Nelson	19 / 47	28 / 56	0 / 0
2	Blake Bilder	12 / 30	12 / 30	0 / 1
2	Kyle Nelson	19 / 39	23 / 43	0 / 0
3	Blake Bilder	11 / 39	30 / 58	0 / 1
3	Kyle Nelson	21 / 40	32 / 51	0 / 1

Kyle Nelson

StanceSwitch

Height71.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights11

Blake Bilder

StanceSwitch

Height68.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights3