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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Patrick Cummins won · U-DEC R3

Elo1353

Elo1373

Kyle KingsburyvsPatrick CumminsUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Lawler vs Brown · Saturday, July 26, 2014San Jose, California, USA

Official fight result

Patrick Cummins won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupKyle Kingsbury: WrestlervsPatrick Cummins: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Patrick Cummins wins(54.2%)

Actual result: Patrick Cummins wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Patrick Cummins at -225 American odds

+$44 profit

$144 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Kyle Kingsbury enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Patrick Cummins enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Kyle Kingsbury has 24pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Kyle Kingsbury

Red Corner

Patrick Cummins

Blue Corner

+205

(33%)

Vegas Odds

-225

(69%)

1353

Elo

1373

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

6'2"

200.66 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Kyle KingsburyL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Ricardo Romero · Feb 11

vs Fabio Maldonado · Jun 11

vs Stephan Bonnar · Nov 11

SUBvs Glover Teixeira · May 12

KOvs Jimi Manuwa · Sep 12

latest

Patrick CumminsL3 streak

oldest →

vs Jan Blachowicz · Apr 17

vs Gian Villante · Jul 17

vs Corey Anderson · Apr 18

SUBvs Misha Cirkunov · Oct 18

KOvs Ed Herman · May 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Kyle KingsburyMetricPatrick Cummins

2.97

Strikes / min

4.26

3.81

Strikes absorbed / min

3.35

51%

Strike defense

55%

2.64

TDs / 15 min

4.49

52%

Takedown defense

28%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.84Δ 1.75 — meaningful gap+0.91

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Kyle KingsburyPatrick Cummins

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Kyle Kingsbury(7 fights)Patrick Cummins(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -19.5|Blue +19.5

Recent Form

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Striker Score

Red +1.9|Blue -1.9

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +616.0|Blue -616.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Kyle KingsburyTargetPatrick Cummins

By target zone

11% acc · 32%

Head

55% acc · 90%

100% acc · 18%

Body

71% acc · 7%

69% acc · 50%

Leg

100% acc · 3%

By position

20% acc · 73%

Distance

36% acc · 26%

100% acc · 27%

Clinch

77% acc · 14%

Ground

70% acc · 60%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Kyle Kingsbury rounds

even

Patrick Cummins rounds

Round 1Patrick Cummins edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:16

19Sig. strikes

4Takedowns

3:24Control

Round 2Patrick Cummins edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:00

32Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

3:08Control

Round 3Patrick Cummins edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:00

22Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

3:01Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

22 / 85

Sig Strikes

73 / 129

26.7%

Sig Str %

55.7%

22 / 85

Total Strikes

115 / 176

0 / 1

TDs

10 / 17

TD %

59%

Sub Att

Rev

0:16

Ctrl Time

9:33

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Patrick Cummins	19 / 35	30 / 47	4 / 7
1	Kyle Kingsbury	10 / 25	10 / 25	0 / 0
2	Patrick Cummins	32 / 49	52 / 71	3 / 5
2	Kyle Kingsbury	7 / 35	7 / 35	0 / 0
3	Patrick Cummins	22 / 45	33 / 58	3 / 5
3	Kyle Kingsbury	5 / 25	5 / 25	0 / 1

Kyle Kingsbury

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights7

Patrick Cummins

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights13