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Catch Weight
3 Rounds
Kyle Daukaus won · SUB R1
Elo1502
Elo1488

Kyle DaukausvsJamie PickettUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Hill · Saturday, February 19, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Kyle Daukaus won

SUB · Round 1 · 4:59

Style matchupKyle Daukaus: WrestlervsJamie Pickett: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Kyle Daukaus wins(69.4%)

Actual result: Kyle Daukaus wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Kyle Daukaus at -335 American odds

+$30 profit

$130 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Jamie Pickett enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
  • Kyle Daukaus has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Kyle Daukaus (53.5%).
  • Jamie Pickett has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Kyle Daukaus
Red Corner
VS
Jamie Pickett
Blue Corner
-335
(77%)
Vegas Odds
+260
(28%)
1502
Elo
1488
33
Age
37
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'2"
Height
6'2"
193.04 cm
Reach
203.2 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Kyle Daukaus
oldest →
L
KOvs Roman Dolidze · Jun 22
L
KOvs Eryk Anders · Dec 22
W
KOvs Michel Pereira · Aug 25
W
SUBvs Gerald Meerschaert · Nov 25
L
KOvs Bo Nickal · Jun 26
latest
Jamie PickettL4 streak
oldest →
W
vs Joseph Holmes · Jan 22
L
KOvs Denis Tiuliulin · Sep 22
L
SUBvs Bo Nickal · Mar 23
L
vs Josh Fremd · Aug 23
L
vs Eryk Anders · Mar 24
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Kyle DaukausMetricJamie Pickett
3.32
Strikes / min
2.65
2.90
Strikes absorbed / min
3.62
42%
Strike defense
50%
2.08
TDs / 15 min
1.26
82%
Takedown defense
67%
2.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.42Δ 1.39 — meaningful gap-0.97

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1485 vs 1503Strikes3.2 vs 2.6Takedowns2.1 vs 1.3Sub Atts1.90 vs 0.10Form-0.4 vs 0.3
Kyle DaukausJamie Pickett

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701485150015151530← oldermost recent →
Kyle Daukaus(9 fights)Jamie Pickett(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +13.6|Blue -13.6
Recent Form
Red -0.7|Blue +0.7
Striker Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Grappler Score
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Layoff
Red +252.0|Blue -252.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Kyle DaukausTargetJamie Pickett

By target zone

4
67% acc · 67%
Head
2
40% acc · 40%
0
Body
3
75% acc · 60%
2
67% acc · 33%
Leg
0

By position

5
71% acc · 83%
Distance
1
20% acc · 20%
1
50% acc · 17%
Clinch
4
100% acc · 80%
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Kyle Daukaus rounds
0
even
0
Jamie Pickett rounds
Round 1Kyle Daukaus edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns3
Control4:12
5Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:15Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
6 / 9
Sig Strikes
5 / 9
66%
Sig Str %
55%
19 / 29
Total Strikes
5 / 9
3 / 6
TDs
0 / 1
50%
TD %
0%
2
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
4:12
Ctrl Time
0:15

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Jamie Pickett5 / 95 / 90 / 10
1Kyle Daukaus6 / 919 / 293 / 62

Kyle Daukaus

StanceSouthpaw
Height74.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights8

Jamie Pickett

StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach80.0"
Fights9