← All fights/Event page

Middleweight

3 Rounds

Kyle Daukaus won · SUB R1

Elo1502

Elo1457

Kyle DaukausvsGerald MeerschaertUFC Prediction Result

UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · Saturday, November 15, 2025New York City, New York, USA

Official fight result

Kyle Daukaus won

SUB · Round 1 · 0:50

Style matchupKyle Daukaus: WrestlervsGerald Meerschaert: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Kyle Daukaus wins(70.8%)

Actual result: Kyle Daukaus wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Kyle Daukaus at -480 American odds

+$21 profit

$121 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gerald Meerschaert enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Gerald Meerschaert has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Kyle Daukaus has 42pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Kyle Daukaus

Red Corner

Gerald Meerschaert

Blue Corner

-480

(83%)

Vegas Odds

+370

(21%)

1502

Elo

1457

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

6'2"

Height

6'1"

193.04 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Kyle Daukaus

oldest →

SUBvs Jamie Pickett · Feb 22

KOvs Roman Dolidze · Jun 22

KOvs Eryk Anders · Dec 22

KOvs Michel Pereira · Aug 25

KOvs Bo Nickal · Jun 26

latest

Gerald MeerschaertL4 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Edmen Shahbazyan · Aug 24

SUBvs Reinier de Ridder · Nov 24

vs Brad Tavares · Apr 25

KOvs Michal Oleksiejczuk · Aug 25

DECvs Jacob Malkoun · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Kyle DaukausMetricGerald Meerschaert

3.32

Strikes / min

2.95

2.90

Strikes absorbed / min

3.44

42%

Strike defense

53%

2.08

TDs / 15 min

1.70

82%

Takedown defense

40%

2.10

Sub atts / 15 min

1.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.42evenly matched on net striking-0.49

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Kyle DaukausGerald Meerschaert

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Kyle Daukaus(9 fights)Gerald Meerschaert(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +45.2|Blue -45.2

Recent Form

Red +1.4|Blue -1.4

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -7.0|Blue +7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Kyle DaukausTargetGerald Meerschaert

By target zone

80% acc · 100%

Head

0% acc

Body

0% acc

Leg

By position

57% acc · 50%

Distance

0% acc

Clinch

100% acc · 50%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Kyle Daukaus rounds

even

Gerald Meerschaert rounds

Round 1Kyle Daukaus edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:17

Knockdowns1

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

8 / 11

Sig Strikes

0 / 2

72%

Sig Str %

8 / 11

Total Strikes

0 / 2

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:17

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Gerald Meerschaert	0 / 2	0 / 2	0 / 0	0
1	Kyle Daukaus	8 / 11	8 / 11	0 / 0	1

Kyle Daukaus

StanceSouthpaw

Height74.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights8

Gerald Meerschaert

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights25