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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Kyle Daukaus won · U-DEC

Elo1502

Elo1486

Kyle DaukausvsDustin StoltzfusUFC Prediction Result

UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez · Saturday, November 21, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Kyle Daukaus won

U-DEC

Style matchupKyle Daukaus: WrestlervsDustin Stoltzfus: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Kyle Daukaus wins(59.4%)

Actual result: Kyle Daukaus wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Kyle Daukaus at -315 American odds

+$32 profit

$132 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Kyle Daukaus has 36pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Kyle Daukaus (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Kyle Daukaus

Red Corner

Dustin Stoltzfus

Blue Corner

-315

(76%)

Vegas Odds

+230

(30%)

1502

Elo

1486

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'0"

193.04 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Kyle Daukaus

oldest →

KOvs Roman Dolidze · Jun 22

KOvs Eryk Anders · Dec 22

KOvs Michel Pereira · Aug 25

SUBvs Gerald Meerschaert · Nov 25

KOvs Bo Nickal · Jun 26

latest

Dustin StoltzfusL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Punahele Soriano · Dec 23

KOvs Brunno Ferreira · Jun 24

KOvs Marc-Andre Barriault · Nov 24

vs Nursulton Ruziboev · May 25

vs Kelvin Gastelum · Sep 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Kyle DaukausMetricDustin Stoltzfus

3.32

Strikes / min

3.30

2.90

Strikes absorbed / min

3.23

42%

Strike defense

47%

2.08

TDs / 15 min

2.08

82%

Takedown defense

46%

2.10

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.42evenly matched on net striking+0.07

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Kyle DaukausDustin Stoltzfus

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Kyle Daukaus(9 fights)Dustin Stoltzfus(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +16.2|Blue -16.2

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red -49.5|Blue +49.5

Grappler Score

Red -48.9|Blue +48.9

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Kyle DaukausTargetDustin Stoltzfus

By target zone

50% acc · 88%

Head

34% acc · 44%

78% acc · 11%

Body

73% acc · 25%

50% acc · 2%

Leg

91% acc · 31%

By position

45% acc · 59%

Distance

38% acc · 56%

82% acc · 22%

Clinch

87% acc · 41%

60% acc · 19%

Ground

100% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Kyle Daukaus rounds

even

Dustin Stoltzfus rounds

Round 1Kyle Daukaus edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns1

Control3:26

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:39Control

Round 2Kyle Daukaus edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control2:23

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:37Control

Round 3Kyle Daukaus edged it

Sig. strikes37

Takedowns1

Control2:51

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:45Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

64 / 122

Sig Strikes

32 / 63

53.3%

Sig Str %

58.7%

113 / 183

Total Strikes

95 / 130

2 / 7

TDs

0 / 7

44.3%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

8:40

Ctrl Time

2:01

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Dustin Stoltzfus	8 / 9	40 / 44	0 / 1	0
1	Kyle Daukaus	10 / 17	25 / 36	1 / 3	0
2	Dustin Stoltzfus	13 / 31	36 / 54	0 / 2	0
2	Kyle Daukaus	17 / 34	37 / 58	0 / 3	0
3	Dustin Stoltzfus	11 / 23	19 / 32	0 / 4	0
3	Kyle Daukaus	37 / 71	51 / 89	1 / 1	1

Kyle Daukaus

StanceSouthpaw

Height74.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights8

Dustin Stoltzfus

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights10