Featherweight

3 Rounds

Kyle Bochniak won · U-DEC R3

Elo1377

Elo1438

Kyle BochniakvsBrandon DavisUFC Prediction Result

UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou · Saturday, January 20, 2018Boston, Massachusetts, USA

Official fight result

Kyle Bochniak won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupKyle Bochniak: Well-roundedvsBrandon Davis: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Kyle Bochniak wins(55.1%)

Actual result: Kyle Bochniak wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Kyle Bochniak at +120 American odds

+$120 profit

$220 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Kyle Bochniak enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Brandon Davis enters on a 4-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Kyle Bochniak

Red Corner

Brandon Davis

Blue Corner

+120

(45%)

Vegas Odds

-140

(58%)

1377

Elo

1438

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'10"

177.8 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Kyle BochniakL4 streak

oldest →

vs Enrique Barzola · Aug 16

vs Jeremy Kennedy · Jul 17

vs Zabit Magomedsharipov · Apr 18

vs Hakeem Dawodu · Dec 18

vs Sean Woodson · Oct 19

latest

Brandon DavisL4 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Randy Costa · Apr 19

vs Kyung Ho Kang · Aug 19

vs Giga Chikadze · Sep 19

KOvs Batgerel Danaa · Oct 21

vs Mana Martinez · Oct 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Kyle BochniakMetricBrandon Davis

2.63

Strikes / min

4.68

5.11

Strikes absorbed / min

4.62

58%

Strike defense

58%

1.14

TDs / 15 min

0.74

62%

Takedown defense

57%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.48Δ 2.54 — meaningful gap+0.06

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Kyle BochniakBrandon Davis

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Kyle Bochniak(7 fights)Brandon Davis(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -60.7|Blue +60.7

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red -47.9|Blue +47.9

Grappler Score

Red -49.9|Blue +49.9

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Kyle BochniakTargetBrandon Davis

By target zone

25% acc · 88%

Head

22% acc · 50%

27% acc · 12%

Body

64% acc · 18%

Leg

86% acc · 32%

By position

22% acc · 79%

Distance

33% acc · 92%

50% acc · 21%

Clinch

50% acc · 8%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Kyle Bochniak rounds

even

Brandon Davis rounds

Round 1Kyle Bochniak edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns2

Control2:31

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Brandon Davis edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:14

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Round 3Kyle Bochniak edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns1

Control1:07

12Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:05Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

33 / 132

Sig Strikes

38 / 112

29%

Sig Str %

34%

35 / 134

Total Strikes

59 / 133

3 / 15

TDs

1 / 1

16.3%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

3:52

Ctrl Time

0:08

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Brandon Davis	7 / 20	17 / 30	0 / 0
1	Kyle Bochniak	7 / 16	8 / 17	2 / 6
2	Brandon Davis	19 / 46	21 / 48	0 / 0
2	Kyle Bochniak	13 / 59	13 / 59	0 / 3
3	Brandon Davis	12 / 46	21 / 55	1 / 1
3	Kyle Bochniak	13 / 57	14 / 58	1 / 6

Kyle Bochniak

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights7

Brandon Davis

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights9