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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Russell Doane won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1361

Elo1491

Kwan Ho KwakvsRussell DoaneUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Correia · Saturday, June 17, 2017Kallang, Singapore

Official fight result

Russell Doane won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:09

Model Prediction: Kwan Ho Kwak wins(52.3%)

Actual result: Russell Doane wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Kwan Ho Kwak at -120 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Russell Doane enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Russell Doane has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Kwan Ho Kwak (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Kwan Ho Kwak

Red Corner

Russell Doane

Blue Corner

-120

(55%)

Vegas Odds

+100

(50%)

1361

Elo

1491

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'7"

177.8 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Kwan Ho Kwak

oldest →

vs Brett Johns · Nov 16

latest

Russell DoaneL5 streak

oldest →

vs Iuri Alcantara · Sep 14

vs Jerrod Sanders · Jul 15

SUBvs Pedro Munhoz · Jul 16

SUBvs Mirsad Bektic · Oct 16

SUBvs Rani Yahya · Feb 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Kwan Ho KwakMetricRussell Doane

3.29

Strikes / min

1.75

3.45

Strikes absorbed / min

1.68

47%

Strike defense

53%

0.78

TDs / 15 min

2.11

26%

Takedown defense

52%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.16evenly matched on net striking+0.07

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Kwan Ho KwakRussell Doane

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Kwan Ho Kwak(2 fights)Russell Doane(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -130.3|Blue +130.3

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red -1.7|Blue +1.7

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red -42.0|Blue +42.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Kwan Ho KwakTargetRussell Doane

By target zone

31% acc · 50%

Head

35% acc · 76%

50% acc · 10%

Body

20% acc · 6%

67% acc · 40%

Leg

75% acc · 18%

By position

43% acc · 100%

Distance

32% acc · 71%

Clinch

100% acc · 6%

0% acc

Ground

50% acc · 24%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Kwan Ho Kwak rounds

even

Russell Doane rounds

Round 1Russell Doane edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns1

Control0:12

Knockdowns0

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

10 / 24

Sig Strikes

17 / 46

41%

Sig Str %

36%

10 / 24

Total Strikes

17 / 46

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:12

Ctrl Time

0:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Russell Doane	17 / 46	17 / 46	0 / 0	0
1	Kwan Ho Kwak	10 / 24	10 / 24	1 / 1	0

Kwan Ho Kwak

StanceSwitch

Height65.0"

Reach—

Fights2

Russell Doane

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights8