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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Gleison Tibau won · S-DEC R3

Elo1351

Elo1366

Kurt PellegrinovsGleison TibauUFC Prediction Result

UFC 128: Shogun vs Jones · Saturday, March 19, 2011Newark, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Gleison Tibau won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupKurt Pellegrino: WrestlervsGleison Tibau: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Kurt Pellegrino wins(51.0%)

Actual result: Gleison Tibau wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Kurt Pellegrino at +125 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gleison Tibau enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Gleison Tibau has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Gleison Tibau (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Kurt Pellegrino

Red Corner

Gleison Tibau

Blue Corner

+125

(44%)

Vegas Odds

-145

(59%)

1351

Elo

1366

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'8"

Height

5'10"

177.8 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Kurt Pellegrino

oldest →

SUBvs Fabricio Camoes · Mar 10

vs George Sotiropoulos · Jul 10

latest

Gleison TibauL4 streak

oldest →

vs Norman Parke · Jan 15

SUBvs Tony Ferguson · Feb 15

vs Abel Trujillo · Nov 15

KOvs Islam Makhachev · Jan 18

vs Desmond Green · Jun 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Kurt PellegrinoMetricGleison Tibau

2.45

Strikes / min

1.95

1.94

Strikes absorbed / min

2.51

63%

Strike defense

63%

2.90

TDs / 15 min

4.08

69%

Takedown defense

92%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.51Δ 1.07 — meaningful gap-0.56

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Kurt PellegrinoGleison Tibau

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Kurt Pellegrino(3 fights)Gleison Tibau(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -14.7|Blue +14.7

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +74.0|Blue -74.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Kurt PellegrinoTargetGleison Tibau

By target zone

29% acc · 64%

Head

33% acc · 66%

100% acc · 26%

Body

94% acc · 34%

100% acc · 11%

Leg

By position

30% acc · 66%

Distance

40% acc · 84%

86% acc · 13%

Clinch

63% acc · 11%

100% acc · 21%

Ground

67% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Kurt Pellegrino rounds

even

Gleison Tibau rounds

Round 1Kurt Pellegrino edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:15

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:36Control

Round 2Kurt Pellegrino edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns1

Control2:17

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Gleison Tibau edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:39

26Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:16Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

47 / 120

Sig Strikes

44 / 103

38.7%

Sig Str %

40.3%

97 / 171

Total Strikes

81 / 149

1 / 6

TDs

2 / 7

33.3%

TD %

25%

Sub Att

Rev

3:11

Ctrl Time

2:52

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Gleison Tibau	9 / 31	17 / 41	0 / 3
1	Kurt Pellegrino	17 / 44	34 / 61	0 / 2
2	Gleison Tibau	9 / 22	12 / 26	0 / 0
2	Kurt Pellegrino	16 / 38	47 / 70	1 / 1
3	Gleison Tibau	26 / 50	52 / 82	2 / 4
3	Kurt Pellegrino	14 / 38	16 / 40	0 / 3

Kurt Pellegrino

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights3

Gleison Tibau

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights18